Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs’ bulk list, the cryolite market continued to be strong in December, and the price trend rose steadily. On December 30, the average market price in Henan was 7,300 RMB/ton, a slight increase of 100 RMB/ton or 1.39% from the price of 7,200 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The price rose by 22.18% year-on-year.

Analysis review

In December, the domestic cryolite market was strongly at a high level. In the early stage, the price rose to a high level due to the shortage of raw materials and high production costs. With the increase of raw materials, the cost pressure eased. However, due to winter heating, manufacturers in northern regions limited production, corporate inventories were low, which supported the continued firmness of the market. Coupled with stable downstream demand, cryolite companies’ external quotations were running at a high level, and market conditions rose slightly. As of the 30th, the ex-factory price of cryolite in Henan was 6,800-8,700 RMB/ton, an increase of 100-300 RMB/ton month-on-month; the ex-factory price in Shandong was temporarily stable, and the quotation was around 7,600 RMB/ton, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated..

On the upstream side, the domestic soda ash market dropped sharply. On December 30, the average price of soda ash was 2,700.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 18.49% compared to the previous month's price of 3,312.50 RMB/ton. Due to the high price in the early period, the market mainly digested the increase during the month. Soda ash prices continued to decrease. In December, the operating rate of soda ash increased, the output increased, and the market supply circulation increased, while the downstream demand was weak. The company actively shipped goods, the actual transaction was average, and the trend of soda ash was weak.

The downstream aluminum price fluctuated upward in December. The average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on December 30 was 20,156.67 RMB/ton, which was an increase of 6.65% from the average market price of 18,900.00 RMB/ton on December 1. Increasing downstream demand and significant aluminum destocking, coupled with the impact of rising overseas electricity prices, drove the domestic spot price to rise to 20,000 RMB/ton. The price of raw material alumina fell, the price of coal fell, the cost of electricity for electrolytic aluminum fell, and the profits of aluminum plants recovered.

Market outlook

At present, the cryolite market continues to be strong, and winter heating affects the company’s production limit. In addition, the cost of raw materials of individual companies is still under pressure, the cryolite market prices are running at a high level. While the downstream demand is acceptable, prices will remain firm in the short term, and the cryolite market is expected to remain stable and wait and see in the later stage.

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