Price trend
According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of December 14, the average ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 7,566 RMB/ton. Compared with the price on December 13 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 7,500 RMB/ton), the average price was raised by 66 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.89%. Compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8,933 RMB/ton), the average price was lowered by 1,367 RMB/ton, a decrease of 15.30%.
Analysis review
Since the beginning of December, the domestic market for n-butanol in Shandong has begun to fall sharply. The downstream demand has been cautious. The inventory of n-butanol factories has gradually accumulated. Under the situation of accumulated warehouses, the pressure on factory shipments has increased, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment has gradually increased. The downstream was cautiously stocking, the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, and the offer price of n-butanol has been continuously lowered since the beginning of the month. After the price fell to a relatively low point, the low-end price transactions on the market have improved, but the high-end price transactions were still under pressure. The overall atmosphere was still deserted, and market support was relatively weak. On December 13, the domestic ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong region referred to 7,400-7,600 RMB/ton, and the average price referred to 7,500 RMB/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the drop exceeded 16%.
The n-butanol market has fallen sharply for nearly half a month, and the industry's mentality has been hurt. On December 14, the n-butanol market finally ushered in favorable support. The installation of temporary parking in the northwest region caused a decrease in timely supply on the market and increased support from the supply side. The downstream stocking mood of n-butanol in Shandong improved, and low-level replenishment orders increased. On the 14th, the offer prices of n-butanol factories in Shandong were slightly increased by 100-200 RMB/ton. The ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was referenced to around 7,600-7,700 RMB/ton, the average price referred to 7,566 RMB/ton, a single-day increase of 0.89%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market in Shandong is getting warmer.
In terms of indexes, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index on December 13 was 61.14, a decrease of 2.72 points from previous day, and a decrease of 53.61% from the highest point in the cycle of 131.79 points (2021-05-16), compared with the lowest point at 29.89 points on the 30th, November 2015, it rose 104.55%. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)
In terms of upstream propylene, according to the price chart of SunSirs, the price of propylene (Shandong) rose slightly at the beginning of last week, but the increase was weak and the price began to fall again. As of December 10, the price of propylene in the Shandong market was 7,500-7,550 RMB/ton. Entering this week, the main downstream polypropylene market continued to fluctuate and weaken, the propylene market was adequately supplied, but the downstream demand support was insufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand remained, resulting in the downward trend of the overall propylene market. As of December 14, the ex-factory price of propylene in Shandong was 7,437 RMB/ton, which was a drop of 1.22% compared to the price on 6th.
Market outlook
Judging from the current situation, the adjustment of n-butanol installations in some regions is good for the market and provides some support for n-butanol. The n-butanol data engineer of SunSirs believes that in the short term, the focus of the n-butanol market in Shandong is expected to continue to adjust upward. Pay more attention to changes in supply and demand.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.