1. Prices Trend
In October 2019, the domestic 1# tin ingot rose and fell. The average price at the beginning of the month was 135,712.50RMB/t, and at the end was 138,262.50RMB/t, 1.88% higher.
On Oct 31, the Tin Commodity Index was 70.43, 0.13 lower than that of yesterday, 29.75% lower than the peak of 100.25 in the cycle (Sep 5, 2011), and 64.33% higher than the lowest point of 42.86 (Dec 9, 2015). (Cycle: Sep 1, 2011 to date)
2. Market Analysis of Shanghai Futures Market
Domestic market: In October, SND and SN hit high and fell back. SND rebounded to 17,240 from the lowest point of 15,850 on September 30. In the late ten days, SND maintained a shock pattern around the line of 16,750, and fell at the end of the month. The overall trend of SN was stronger than that of SND. This month, it rebounded to 141,790 from 133,260, the lowest point, and then entered 138,500. In October, there was frequent news of production reduction in domestic and foreign tin industry, which stimulated the strong upward trend of tin prices in the first half of the month. However, the downward trend of domestic and foreign economy led to sluggish demand, further upward trend of tin prices was blocked, and this month, the tin prices rose and fell. As of the end of the month, the spot price of SN was 136,500-138,500RMB/t. The manufacturer's quotation was firm, but the transaction was not ideal. Some traders and downstream suppliers had replenishment, and the market purchase volume was relatively small.
Industry: Before and after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the US dollar index continued to decline. A series of domestic and foreign economic data were weak after the interest rate cut as scheduled, which led to concerns about the continued weakness of the future macro-economy. After this week, the US Congress officially launched the impeachment procedure for Trump, and the base metal showed a trend of ‘first raise then fall‘.
Import and export: Indonesia's refined tin exports fell 41% year on year in September, according to data released by the Ministry of Trade on Oct 11. According to data, Indonesia's refined tin exports last month were 5,225.26 tons, lower than that of last years’s 8,854.30 tons . On a monthly basis, refined tin exports in September fell 5%.
According to the data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on October 16, the supply gap of the global tin market from January to August 2019 was 5600 tons. Total reported inventory is 7100 tonnes higher than at the end of 2018, but this includes 6000 tonnes of Indonesia's unexplained increase in inventory. From January to August 2019, the global refined tin production increased by 6000 tons compared with the same period last year. Asian production increased 5900 tons year on year. China's apparent demand increased by 8% year on year. From January to August 2019, the global tin demand is 254400 tons, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year. Japan's consumption was 18400 tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year. In August 2019, the refined tin output is 32000 tons, and the consumption is 31800 tons.
According to data released the International Tin Association (ITA), Beijing Branch, China's refined tin production in the first half of 2019 decreased by about 10% year on year to about 75,000 tons. According to ITA's survey of 15 refineries in China, the output of refined tin in June was about 12,500 tons, decreasing 9% month on month and year on year. China is the number one tin producer. Cui Lin, ITA's chief representative of China, said the decline in refined tin production was due to the reduced supply of tin concentrates in Myanmar and weak demand in China. So far at the beginning of the year, the price of Futures tin in Shanghai has dropped nearly 8% to about 134,000RMB/t. Cui said prices below the 140,000RMB line would affect production because of the high cost of ore supply in Myanmar.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
Next week's economic data is still concentrated. In addition to the employment data, there are PMI data from various countries. It's hard to be optimistic about the expected value, and there's no room for a sharp rise for the low dollar index recovery. However, the worry about economic fatigue still makes the bullies of various metals afraid. If the market shows a correction, it may increase the willingness of downstream consumers to buy. In November, the atmosphere will be much better.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.