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Soybean meal News
Soybean Meal Continues to Fluctuate Strongly, Pay Attention to Low Support
June 10 2021 08:32:44Zhaojin Futures(Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2109 rose and fell back on Wednesday, closing at 3619 (up 4), with a total of more than 29,000 Masukura lots, and trading volume remained stable. The top 20 capital flows: long-term diversified Masukura is the main focus, with a large increase in holdings, slightly lower than short, and a slight increase in concentration; short diversified Masukura, with a large increase in holdings and a slight increase in concentration. Recently, high-level management has strengthened the supervision of commodity price increases, and the Fed has tried to withdraw from easing measures, which is bad for commodities. The crop growth report released by USDA this week showed that the planting area rate of US soybeans was 90% lower than the expected value of 92%, and US soybeans fluctuated strongly at high levels. Pig futures prices rebounded slightly after continuous sharp declines, and most breeding companies lost money. Domestic soybean meal rushed higher overnight. Long-term funds took the initiative to increase their positions. Short-term or continued strong volatility. Pay attention to the support situation near 3600. Pay attention to external market trends and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The current macro easing supports the low level of agricultural products, but policy adjustments affect market expectations. External disks, supply and demand, and market sentiment factors have a comprehensive impact on the market. In the short term, the high yield of Brazilian soybeans has accelerated its entry into the market to suppress the US soybean rebound. Recent reports show that the US soybean planting area is lower than expected, and the overall supply and demand balance sheet is likely to remain tight. China's imports of US soybeans may reach a new high in 2021. On the demand side, the domestic hog sell-off caused prices to continue to fall sharply and hit a new low during the year. Replenishment may be slower than expected. Soybean meal stocks seasonally decline, and spot prices are high. In the long run, the recovery of the hog breeding cycle will stimulate long-term demand for soybean meal, and the overall market will remain slow. Cow pattern. Operational reference: the market has fallen to an important support zone, and you can choose the opportunity to lay out long-term and long-term orders. After a sharp increase, you can reduce your position or hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2109 may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, pay attention to the support situation near 3600. Short-term operation: hold more than 5% of the capital position, drop below 3600 and close the position. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3550-3580 area, you can consider trying more. If the market rises near 3680 and above, you can consider reducing more and closing more. Band operation (point price can be used as a reference): continue to hold 10% more capital positions at the low level or fall back to the 3500-3550 area. The layout of the band is multi-order, and the high price area 3700-3800 in the previous period can be considered to reduce the long and flat the long. Key short-term positions: 3590, 3660.

Market news: The US Department of Agriculture report in May: Maintain the forecast value of the end of 2020/21 US soybean stocks unchanged, still at 120 million bushels, the lowest point in 7 years; US soybean exports are expected to reach 2.28 billion bushels, and soybean crush is expected to be 2.19 billion Bushels, seed consumption is expected to be 102 million bushels, which is the same as last month's forecast. The U.S. Department of Agriculture kept Brazil’s soybean production forecast unchanged this month at a record 136 million tons, which was 5.84% higher than the previous year's output. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: In April, the number of reproductive sows increased by 1.1% month-on-month, for 19 consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 23.0%, returning to 97.6% at the end of 2017; the current pig inventory has been maintained at more than 416 million heads. Basically close to the level of normal years.

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