1. Price Trend

According to SunSirs, after August, affected by rainy weather and high temperatures, cement demand continued to decline, inventory rose, cement prices in eastern China fell sharply. In late August, rainy weather decreased and prices in East China rebounded. The price of cement in East China was 458.80 yuan per ton on the 1st day, 456.40 yuan per ton on the 19th, August and 461.20 yuan per ton on the 29th August, an increase of 0.52%.

2. Quotations Analysis

Products:

Cement prices began to fall after mid-June, and fell further in August affected by the high temperature and rainy weather. After 20th August, cement prices in East China have picked up due to the reduction of rainy days.

In August, the price of cement in East China fell first and then rose. The reason for the earlier decline was that the construction market was shut down due to rainy weather. Typhoon weather even caused floods in some provinces and cities, which was not conducive to the transportation of cement. The high stock level lowered the price of clinker and cement. The reason for the rise in the late August was that due to the reduction of rainy days, the resumption of construction sites, the sunny weather was conducive to cement transportation, the market demand rose as the peak season was coming, cement stocks were at a low level, and cement prices in East China rose.

Industry chain:

Upstream: At present, the domestic coke market has completed the first round of increase and decrease, the decline rate is around 100 yuan/ton, and the current market is weak. After the restriction of output by the Second Youth League, the supply in Shanxi region has gradually increased, the terminal market demand is not good, the order of coke enterprises is small, and the recovery of demand side in the industry still needs time. Because of the two successive rounds of increase before, the profit of coke enterprises is still acceptable, and there is no obvious resistance to the reduction of coke price; in the downstream, the profit of steel factories is still low. In addition, coke inventory increased slightly, resulting in steel factories for on-demand pick-up or even suspension of purchasing. As the National Day is approaching, Hebei region is expected to be more affected by environmental protection, and intentions to suppress coke prices are strong.

Downstream: From January to June, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 7722.92 million square meters, an increase of 8.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was the same as that in January to May.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to Sunsirs, the peak season will come after September, typhoon and rainy weather will decrease with lower temperature, demand will rise and staggered peak production will start. After the inventory is lowered, the price of cement in East China will have a momentum to rise in the short term.