1. Trend analysis
In April, domestic cobalt prices fluctuated and fell, and the overall cobalt market continued to fall. As of April 26, the cobalt price was 337000.00 yuan/ton, a drop of 4.44% from the 352666.66 yuan/ton cobalt price at the beginning of the month (April 1).
2. Tesla accidents happen frequently
On April 19, on the opening day of the 2021 Shanghai Auto Show, in front of the Tesla booth, a female owner wearing a T-shirt with the words "Brake Failure" boarded on the roof of a "Tesla Model 3" show car. And shouted "Tesla brake failure" to defend rights. Tesla's rights protection incident at the Shanghai Auto Show has once again pushed Tesla to the forefront, and multiple reports of Tesla brake failure incidents have also triggered market concerns about Tesla's sales. It further affects the worries of rising demand in the cobalt market.
Judging from the news that has been publicly exposed by the media, since 2020, there have been more than ten incidents of Tesla brake failure. In more than a year, such incidents occurred frequently in Jiangxi, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Beijing, Jiangsu, Shenzhen and other places nationwide. However, most of Tesla officials did not give a detailed and accurate response to the cause of such accidents. The relatively high density of brake failure accidents in a short period of time "getting together" will inevitably trigger market concerns about Tesla's quality, affect Tesla's sales, and even make the sound of Tesla's suspension of production pending investigation. New energy vehicles are an important growth point for the demand in the cobalt market. The expected growth of Tesla's sales is insufficient, which has triggered a decline in the market's expectations of rising demand in the cobalt market, and the cobalt market has insufficient momentum for the market outlook.
3. New energy vehicle sales
According to the March sales data released by the Passenger Association, the wholesale sales of major new energy vehicle companies in March 2021 all rose sharply year-on-year. Tesla's sales ranked second, rising sharply year-on-year, but there is still a difference between wholesale sales and actual sales. With the exception of Tesla, the sales of other new energy vehicles have achieved more than 100% sales growth. The overall market for new energy vehicles has risen significantly, and the market outlook for the cobalt market is still in the rising range.
4. Analysis
The Tesla incident will inevitably affect the sales of new energy vehicles, and the expected rise in demand in the cobalt market is lowered; but new energy vehicles are the future trend and development direction, and the rise of the new energy vehicle industry is inevitable, and the demand for cobalt in the market outlook will rise. In the future, the cobalt market still has room to rise, but the Tesla incident will have a certain negative impact on the cobalt market in the short term. And in the near future, we should focus on the latest developments in the Tesla incident. Is the failure of Tesla brakes a quality problem? Will the government impose penalties on Tesla and how? In general, new energy vehicles are an important support for the future cobalt market. The rise in the cobalt market is more driven by the new energy vehicle industry, and safe new energy vehicles are the basic guarantee for the development of new energy vehicles. In the future, the trend of cobalt prices will follow Tesla's fluctuations, or plummet or slowly rise.
Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).
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