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Shanghai Nickel Rebounded Downwards, Maintaining Low Adjustment
April 23 2021 08:37:17Ruida Futures(Linda)

Internal and external trends: LME nickel rebounded slightly on Wednesday. As of 15:00 Beijing time, LME nickel reported $16,130/ton in three months, a daily increase of 0.94%. Shanghai Nickel’s main 2106 contract rebounded, the highest within the day was 121650 yuan/ton, the lowest was 119280 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 120850 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the closing price of the previous trading day; the trading volume was 689,347 lots, an increase of 142,000 lots per day; The position is 167,500 hands, which is a daily decrease of 148 hands. Basis-250 yuan / ton; Shanghai nickel 2106-2107 month price difference-100 yuan / ton.

Market focus: (1) Fed Chairman Powell said in a letter to Senator Rick Scott that the US inflation rate is expected to "rise slightly" this year, but the Fed will curb the inflation rate above the 2% target. (2) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that the next step will be to work with relevant departments to actively take measures to promote the stability of raw material prices. (3) According to 51BXG, China imported about 168,000 tons of stainless steel in March, an increase of 6.3% from the previous month.

Spot analysis: On April 21, spot 1# electrolytic nickel was quoted at 119,500-12,1700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,600 yuan/ton, and a daily drop of 1,150 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals reported that the premium status was basically stable at yesterday, and the downstream was taken as needed. Traders were generally enthusiastic about purchasing. As the consumption side had not increased significantly, the market transactions were not satisfactory.

Warehouse receipt inventory: On Wednesday, Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts totaled 7,592 tons, a daily decrease of 609 tons; on April 20, LME nickel inventory was 264,474 tons, an increase of 1,710 tons per day.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Nickel’s main 2106 contract are 99,669 hands, with a daily increase of 2,297 hands, short positions of 109,526 hands, a daily decrease of 5,098 hands, a net short position of 9,857 hands, a daily decrease of 7395 hands, a long increase in short, and a decrease in headroom.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai Nickel 2106 dropped to rebound on April 21. Fed Chairman Powell stated that he would curb the rise in the inflation rate above the 2% target and support the US dollar. Recently, new crown virus infections have surged again in some countries, and risk appetite has cooled. The upstream Philippines is expected to come to an end, nickel ore supply is gradually recovering, and domestic nickel ore inventories have rebounded recently. In addition, the expected increase in the amount of Indonesian ferronickel returned to the country will put pressure on domestic prices. The downstream stainless steel production schedule has declined in April, and the market purchase willingness has weakened. Recently, domestic nickel stocks have increased slightly, and nickel prices have not been able to move up. Technically, the mainstream positions of Shanghai Nickel's main 2106 contract increased and reduced, and attention was paid to the previous low level support. The market outlook is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the 119000-122000 yuan/ton range, with a stop loss of 1000 yuan/ton each.

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