- Price Trend
According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of steam coal fell slightly last week. At the beginning of the week, the price of steam coal remained at about 577 RMB/ ton, and at the end of the week, the price of steam coal remained at about 572 RMB/ ton, with the overall price slightly down 0.87%.
- Analysis of Influencing Factors
Both output and import increased and the supply is still abundant, which is bad for the price of power coal. According to SunSirs, on one hand, the output of raw coal increased. From January to September 2019, the output of domastic raw coal was 2,736.45 million tons, an increase of 4.5% year on year; on the other hand, the import volume increased. In the first three quarters of 2019, the total amount of coal imported by China had reached 251 million tons, an increase of 9.5% year on year. In the case of sufficient overall supply, it is difficult for the price of power coal to rise sharply.
As the peak season of coal use in winter approaches, the daily consumption of power plants has increased slightly. Coupled with the traders' resistance to low prices, the price of steam coal has not decreased much. According to SunSirs, as of October 24, the six major power plants in the coastal areas had an inventory of 16.051 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons on a week-on-week basis, an increase of 183,000 tons over the same period of the previous year. The daily coal consumption was 628,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons on a week-on-week basis and an increase of 9.8 tons over the same period of the previous year; the available days were 25.6 days, a decrease of 1.6 days on a week-on-week basis and a decrease of 4.3 days from the same period last year.
- Market Forecast
Analysts of SunSirs believe: at present, on one hand, the supply pressure of steam coal is still under pressure, on the other hand, the peak season of winter coal consumption is approaching, and the upstream and downstream game of steam coal will continue in the short term, and it is expected that the steam coal market will continue to be weak and volatile in the short term.
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