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SunSirs: The High Pressure is Still Heavy, and the Soybean Meal Market is under Pressure
April 07 2021 08:31:09Zhaojin Futures(Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2109 fluctuated and fell back on Tuesday, closing at 3490 (down 17), with a total of 12,000 lots of Masukura and a decrease in trading volume. The top 20 capital flows: long positions are dispersed to increase and decrease positions, and the amount of positions held slightly decreases, and the concentration is slightly reduced; short positions are individually concentrated to increase positions, and the amount of positions increases greatly, and the concentration of funds increases slightly. The US Department of Agriculture report shows that the soybean planting area is lower than expected, and the US soybean and US soybean meal have risen and fallen. Market expectations are changing faster and short-term washing is increasing. After the bullish influence is digested, the soybean meal market returns to supply and demand dominance. The high pressure is still heavy. Short-term or continued pressure washing fluctuations, pay attention to the support situation near 3450, pay attention to external disk trends and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The current macro easing has weakened the overall support for commodities, and the external disk, supply and demand and market sentiment factors alternately affected the market. The April US supply and demand report exceeded market expectations, and US agricultural products fell after a sharp rise. On the supply side, the U.S. soybean planting area is lower than expected, and the stock-to-consumption ratio is still at a low level. In 2021, China's imports of U.S. soybeans may reach a new high. In terms of demand, the domestic non-Pest disease has affected the intensive selling of live pigs, and the seasonal demand for soybean meal has declined. However, in the long run, the recovery of the large breeding cycle is confirmed, which stimulates the increase in long-term demand for soybean meal. Operational reference: the market has fallen to an important support zone, and you can choose the opportunity to lay out long-term and long-term orders. After a sharp increase, you can reduce your position or hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2109 may continue to be under pressure and wash trading fluctuations in the short term, pay attention to the support situation near 3450. Short-term operation: wait and see, if the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3420-3450 area, you can consider trying more. If the market is under pressure near 3500 and above, you can consider flattening and testing short. Band operation: hold 10% more fund positions at a low position or fall back to around 3400 and place a midline long position below. Key short-term positions: 3470, 3520.

Market news: US Department of Agriculture report: The US soybean planting area in 2021 is estimated to be 87.6 million acres, compared with the previous estimate of 89.996 million acres. The actual planted area in 2020 is 83.084 million acres. US soybean stocks for the March 1 season were 1,564,164 million bushels. The previous market estimate was 1.534 billion bushels, compared with 2.254882 billion bushels in the same period last year. Affected by the recent rise of swine fever, farmer households have slaughtered more, and the pig stock has declined for two consecutive months from January to February. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: As of the end of January 2021, the stock of reproductive sows has increased by 1.1% month-on-month, which is the 16th consecutive month of growth and a year-on-year increase of 35%. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development. As of the week of March 26, the soybean meal inventory of domestic coastal oil plants was 743,100 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week, a decrease of 0.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 128.15%.

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