Futures: soybean meal 2109 was under pressure on Monday, closing at 3275 (down 20), adding more than 6000 positions and increasing trading volume. The top 20 capital flows: the number of long heads increased or decreased in a centralized manner, the position volume increased slightly, the concentration increased; the short positions increased in a centralized manner, the positions increased, and the concentration of funds was fine adjusted. The high pressure of American soybean market is under pressure and shock, South American soybean is gradually listed, and supply pressure is increasing. The swine fever in Africa led to the concentrated selling of pigs, combined with the seasonal demand decline of soybean meal and weekly inventory accumulation. The soybean meal was under pressure and fell, and the short-term or gradual fluctuation stabilized. The pressure situation around 3300 was concerned, and the trend of the external market, the key position of fund sentiment and the market expectation were noted.
Strategy analysis: the current macro easing has weakened the overall support for commodities, and supply, weather and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. The planting intention report at the end of March will continue to disturb the market. On the supply side, the market has some concerns about the impact of extreme cold weather on spring sowing in the United States. The consumption ratio of American soybean pool is still low. China's soybean purchase has turned to South America, and the amount of American beans imported or innovation in 2021 is high. In terms of demand, domestic non blast affects the concentrated selling of pigs, while the seasonal demand of soybean meal decreases. However, the long-term recovery of large-term breeding cycle will stimulate the long-term demand of soybean meal to increase. Operation reference: the market falls to the important support area can choose the medium and long-term layout of multiple single, after a large pull up can be reduced or hedge.

Market strategy: soybean meal 2109 is stable in short term or gradually, and it pays attention to the pressure situation around 3300. Short line operation: close position and watch, if the market is down to 3200-3250 area to stabilize, we can consider more tests, if the market is up 3350 and above pressure can consider reducing more flat. Band operation: light warehouse enters 10% of the capital position or falls down 3200 nearby and below the layout of the center line more than one. Short line key: 3250, 3300.

Market news: Ministry of agriculture and rural areas: by the end of January 2021, the amount of sows that can be bred has increased by 1.1% on a month basis, which has been growing for 16 consecutive months, an increase of 35% year on year. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the import volume of pork in China in December 2020 was 430000 tons, an increase of 100000 tons on a month basis, an increase of 33%; a year-on-year increase of 170000 tons, an increase of 66%. On March 5, the central government plans to put in 10000 tons of frozen pork. Affected by the rise of swine fever in recent years, farmers have more listing, and pig stocks have declined for two consecutive months from January to February. Development and Reform Commission: the national development and Reform Commission has issued a central budget with an investment of 4.55 billion yuan, strengthened support for infrastructure construction such as environmental governance of livestock and poultry farms, supported pig production and accelerated recovery, and promoted sustainable agricultural development.

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