Futures: Soybean meal 2109 rose sharply on Monday, closing at 3492 (up 61), totaling more than 18,000 lots of Masukura, and trading volume increased. The top 20 capital flows: long positions increase and decrease positions, and positions increase slightly, and the concentration is slightly increased; short positions increase and decrease individually, and positions increase and decrease, and concentration increases. The U.S. soybean market was under pressure after a strong surge. South American soybeans began to go on the market, and the supply pressure gradually increased. African swine fever has led to concentrated sales of live pigs, superimposed on seasonal decline in soybean meal demand, accumulated weekly inventory, high pressure on soybean meal market, pay attention to the pressure near 3500, short-term or shock washing fluctuations, pay attention to the trend of external disks, key capital sentiment and the market expected changes.

Strategic analysis: The current supply and demand, weather and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. The planting intention report at the end of March will continue to disturb the market, and macro easing will weaken the overall support for commodities. On the supply side, the market has certain concerns about the impact of the extreme cold weather in the United States on spring sowing. China's soybean purchases are shifting to South America to pressure U.S. soybean prices, but the U.S. soybean stock-to-consumption ratio is still at a low level. China's imports of U.S. soybeans may reach a new high in 2021. In terms of demand, the domestic non-Pest disease has affected the intensive selling of live pigs, and the seasonal demand for soybean meal has declined. However, in the medium and long term, the recovery of the large breeding cycle is confirmed, which stimulates the increase in demand for soybean meal. Operational reference: When the market is exploring the important support area, you can choose the opportunity to lay out long-term and long-term orders. After a substantial increase, you can reduce your position or hedge your short-term position.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2109 short-term or shock wash, pay attention to the initiative of funds near 3500. Short-term operation: hold 10% more capital positions, drop below 3480 and close your position. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3420-3450 area, you can consider trying more. If the market is under pressure near 3550 and above, you can consider reducing more and closing more. Swing operation: The long-month 2109 contract holds 10% more capital positions or drops near and below 3400 and the layout of the mid-line multi-order. Key short-term positions: 3470, 3520.

Market news: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: As of the end of January 2021, the number of reproductive sows has increased by 1.1% month-on-month, which has been an increase for 16 consecutive months and has increased by 35% year-on-year. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China's pork imports in December 2020 amounted to 430,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 33%, and an increase of 170,000 tons, an increase of 66% year-on-year. On March 5, the central reserve of frozen pork plans to put in 10,000 tons. Affected by the recent rise of swine fever, farmer households have slaughtered more, and the pig stock has declined for two consecutive months from January to February. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development.

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