Internal and external trends: LME nickel fell sharply on Wednesday. As of 15:00 Beijing time, three-month LME nickel reported $17,575/ton, a daily drop of 0.87%. Shanghai Nickel’s main 2104 contract was under pressure, with a daily maximum of 131740 yuan/ton and a minimum of 128840 yuan/ton. The closing price was 129630 yuan/ton, which was 1.25% lower than the closing price of the previous trading day; the trading volume was 803,569 lots, an increase of 61,342 lots; Hold positions of 154,373 hands, a daily increase of 11084 hands. The basis difference is 2,620 yuan/ton; the monthly price difference of Shanghai nickel from 2103 to 2104 is -60 yuan/ton.
Market focus: (1) The Democrats in the Senate pushed Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan into the fast track to be approved on February 2. The U.S. Senate will vote on the resolution on February 4, and the House of Representatives will also vote this week. (2) Last week, the number of new confirmed cases of new crowns worldwide has shown a downward trend for the third consecutive week. (3) According to statistics from 51bxg, domestic stainless steel production in January increased by 5,000 tons from the previous month to 3.166 million tons, an increase of 0.2%; an increase of 760,000 tons, an increase of 31.6%. Among them, the volume of 300 series was about 1.408 million tons, an increase of 1.5% from the previous month and an increase of 20.6% from the same period last year. Preliminary statistics show that the total output reduction in February is expected to be about 215,000 tons, of which about 50,000 tons are from 300 series.
Spot analysis: On February 3, spot 1# electrolytic nickel was quoted at RMB 130,200-134,300/ton, with an average price of RMB 132,250/ton, and a daily drop of RMB 1,650/ton. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals reported that the holders cleared their inventory, but the downstream stocking is basically coming to an end. Traders are cautious about buying less, and the willingness of spot market transactions is not high.
Warehouse receipt inventory: On Wednesday, Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts totaled 9563 tons, a daily reduction of 50 tons; on February 2, LME nickel inventory was 249,102 tons, a daily reduction of 246 tons.
Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Nickel's main 2104 contract are 92048 hands, 4624 hands daily, 119611 short positions, 2134 hands daily, 27563 hands headroom, 2490 hands daily, long short and headroom decrease.
Market research and judgment: On February 3, Shanghai Nickel 2104 came under pressure and declined. The number of new cases of the global new crown has fallen for the third consecutive week, and the Biden stimulus bill has entered a fast track. Market optimism has rebounded. However, the market expects that the US economic recovery will be stronger than that of Europe, making the US dollar index strong. As the Philippines enters the rainy season, the supply of nickel ore has dropped to a low level, coupled with the continuation of Indonesia's nickel ore export ban, the domestic nickel ore supply is expected to rise. Due to the shortage of raw materials and approaching the end of the year, the domestic electrolytic nickel production schedule declined, and the electrolytic nickel inventory continued to fall. However, the recent market supply has arrived, and there is an overhaul plan for stainless steel during the Spring Festival, nickel prices are under pressure to adjust. Technically, the mainstream holdings of Shanghai Nickel's main 2104 contract have increased and decreased. Concerned about the 40-day moving average support, short-term width adjustments are expected. In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the range of 130000-134000 yuan/ton, with a stop loss of 1500 yuan/ton each.
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