According to the monitoring of SunSirs, at the beginning of last week, the average price of first-level white granulated sugar was 5,410 yuan/ton. Last weekend, the average price of first-level white granulated sugar was 5403 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%.

Market analysis

The cumulative output of southern sugar in the fourth quarter is expected to be less than that of the same period last year. The progress of northern sugar in the early stage of the crushing season is slow, but it has been accelerating in the past month. North sugar production is expected to increase slightly from last year. Overall, the cumulative output of new sugar in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the same period last year.
The import volume from November to December is still not small. From the perspective of the production of sugar processing plants, the output of sugar processing plants is still at a high level at present, with a significant increase over last year, and the price difference between internal and external prices is still negative. In this case, it is more difficult for sugar prices to rise smoothly in the later stage.

In 20/21, the global sugar production is expected to be insufficient or short of 3.5 million tons, which is significantly higher than the 724,000 tons previously expected. India lowered it from 31.5 million tons to 31 million tons, and the EU lowered it from 16.8 million tons to 16.3 million tons. Global sugar consumption is estimated to be 174.6 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 174.2 million tons, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year.

Since Brazil’s 20/21 crushing season, the amount of sugar exported has basically continued to increase compared with the previous month. In October, a total of 4.2 million tons of sugar was exported, a year-on-year increase of 118%. This is the highest monthly sugar export volume in Brazil's history. Brazil’s 20/21 crushing season has accumulated from April to October Exported sugar was 22.05 million tons, an increase of about 10 million tons, or about 92.7%.

Post prediction

It is expected that the price of white granulated sugar will stabilize in the market outlook and fluctuate in a range. When the Spring Festival stocking is approaching, there is an opportunity for sugar prices to rise.

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