External disk trend: On Monday, the BMD benchmark January crude palm oil contract rose by 94 MYR, a range of 3.2%, and the closing price was 3069 MYR/ton

Disk trend: P2101 closed at 6406, 2.27% from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 1,306,631, and the open interest was 368,132 hands, -5605 hands; the P-1-5 month spread was 422.

Market dynamics:

1. UOB's survey of Malaysian palm oil production in October showed that October production fell by 5% to 9%, of which Sabah is expected to drop by 2%-6%, Sarawak is down by 4%-8%, and the Malay Peninsula is down by 7%-11%.

2. Singapore Galaxy Securities CGS-CIMB estimates of Malaysian palm oil supply and demand data in October: output 1.755 million tons (-6%), export 1.693 million tons (+5%), inventory 1.587 million tons (-8%), Import 50,000 tons.

Market price: quoted by Tianjin traders, 24 degrees palm oil 6,800 tons, 60 yuan/ton; Zhangjiagang area traders, 24 degrees palm oil 6740 yuan/ton, +100 yuan/ton; Guangdong Dongguan area traders quoted, 24 degrees Palm oil is 6,730 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton.

Warehouse Receipt Inventory: Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt: 1150 lots of warehouse receipts, 0 lots.

Main positions: palm oil 2101 contract top 20 long positions 219558, -839, short positions 243228, -273. (Unit: hand)

Summary: According to data released by institutions such as the Southern Palm Oil Association of West Malaysia (SPPOMA), it is predicted that Malaysian palm oil production in October will fall between 5 and 9.74% from September, while data from shipping survey agencies show that exports will increase month-on-month in October 4.32-5.6%, Malay palm oil accumulation is slow. Indonesia has substantially increased palm oil export surcharges to subsidize the B30 plan to boost palm oil demand. India is considering reducing vegetable oil import tariffs and expanding imports. Domestically, as of the week of October 30, the total inventory of edible palm oil in ports across the country was 409,000 tons, an increase of 5.8% from 386,500 tons in the previous week, and an increase of 118,500 tons or 40.79% from 290,500 tons in the same period last month. , Compared with 534,600 tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 12.56 tons, a decrease of 23.49%. Although domestic palm oil inventories have rebounded, the overall situation is still low, and there is little pressure on the disk. On the whole, palm oil's recent news is more positive, with long orders near 6,150 yuan/ton continuing to hold, with a stop loss of 6,000 yuan/ton.

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