1. Trend analysis
According to SunSirs data monitoring, the recent performance of the cobalt market has been average, and the price of cobalt has fluctuated and dropped. As of October 27, the cobalt price was 270,333.34 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.58% from the 274,666.66 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), and the cobalt price was 272,833.34 yuan/ton lower than last weekend (October 18). A decrease of 0.92%.
2. Domestic mobile phone production and sales data
According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in September 2020, the total domestic mobile phone market shipments were 23.334 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 35.6%; from January to September, the total domestic mobile phone market shipments totaled 226 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5%. The sales of mobile phones have fallen sharply, and the demand in the cobalt market has plummeted.
3. Import data of cobalt raw materials
According to the latest data from the customs website, in September 2020, China imported 26,700 physical tons of cobalt raw materials, equivalent to about 6,700 tons of metal, a decrease of 27% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 32%; imports of cobalt concentrate were 5305 physical tons, equivalent to about 424 metal tons. Tons, basically the same month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 65%. From January to September 2020, China's total imports of cobalt raw materials totaled 61,200 tons of metal, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. From January to September, the import volume of cobalt raw materials decreased slightly, and the supply of cobalt decreased slightly. The import data in September fell sharply. The domestic cobalt market demand was not good, and domestic cobalt traders were generally motivated to import.
4. Market summary
SunSirs data analysts believe that in September mobile phone sales fell sharply, the demand for cobalt market fell significantly, and the cobalt market fell under greater pressure; from January to September the import volume of cobalt raw materials fell, the cobalt market weakened, and the cobalt market was under greater downward pressure; 9 The import volume of cobalt raw materials dropped sharply in September. In September, the cobalt market was substantially destocked, and the supply of cobalt in the cobalt market decreased. The cobalt price has a certain upward momentum in the future. On the whole, the demand in the cobalt market has fallen recently and the market has weakened. However, as the cobalt market's inventory decreases and the supply of the cobalt market decreases, the cobalt market will have a certain upward momentum in the future. It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate and stabilize.
Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).
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