According to the data of SunSirs, the price of petroleum coke products of domestic refiners rose, with the average price of 1,428 RMB/ ton in Shandong market at the beginning of the week, 1,490.75 RMB/ ton on weekends, and the price increased by 4.39%, up 27.61% year on year. On October 22, the petroleum coke commodity index was 115.75, up 2.12 points from the previous day, down 25.61% from 155.59 (January 25, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and 73.05% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 30, 2012 to present)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
The main reason for the price rise of petroleum coke is the shortage of goods. The supply of low sulfur coke is less and the market transaction is good. In terms of medium and high sulfur, the supply is insufficient, downstream demand is still acceptable, and there are many maintenance manufacturers, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke has increased.
Upstream: in the short term, the cruide oil market will still be under pressure from demand. The United States is in the election, and the two parties' dispute has great differences in the implementation of the new fiscal stimulus policy. Considering comprehensively, oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the near future.
Downstream: the carbon market is still available in the near future, and the high vibration of downstream electrolytic aluminum plays a supporting role, but the profits of carbon enterprises are not high, and it is expected to operate under pressure in the near future. The market of silicon metal is strong because of the strong sales sentiment of enterprises, and the price is stable and upward. In terms of thermal coal, the domestic power plant inventory is at a high level, and the demand for winter storage and replenishment of key power plants exists, and the inventory continues to rise. The power plant has large inventory, but the heating season is coming, and the power plant still has the demand for thermal coal replenishment. It is predicted that the short-term thermal coal price will still be operated in the whole range.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were 9 commodities rising in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 41st week (10.12-10.16) in 2020, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities of increase were methanol (5.75%), LNG (4.17%) and LPG (1.62%). There were 5 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were asphalt (-1.20%), MTBE (-1.10%) and naphtha (-0.37%). Last week, the average rise and fall was 0.77%.
SunSirs oil coke analysts believe that: the current price of petroleum coke is rising due to tight supply of goods, and some manufacturers' maintenance is good for the petroleum coke. It is predicted that the trend of China petroleum coke will be better in the short term or continue. The specific situation depends on the demand of downstream market.
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