According to SunSirs: in September, China domestic LNG rose 9.28%, and then still rose after the National holidays. On October 9, the average price was 2,706.67 yuan / ton, up 2.92% compared with that before the festival, 12.47% higher than that at the beginning of September, 14.85% on a month on month basis, and 7.31% lower than the same period last year.

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Since the second half of September, due to the relatively stable market situation, the shipment situation of some LNG plants has improved, and the demand has gradually increased. Moreover, after the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not great, the shipment situation has been improved, and the negative factors in the off-season gradually turned weak, the market trading improved, the market continued to rise, and it was continuous rising near the end of the month. With the decrease of temperature, the demand for city gas and vehicle use is better, there’s no pressure on inventory, manufacturers have more confidence in raising prices.

During the National Day holidays, traffic was blocked and LNG shipment was not smooth. After the holiday, the road transportation was restored and the downstream began to actively replenish. The terminal demand increased. In addition, the weather turned cold, and the northern cities gradually entered the winter heating period, which supported the rising LNG price. There are positive adjustments of LNG price in many places, and due to the increase of feed gas price and other favorable factors, LNG plants are optimistic and the market gradually turns from off-season to peak season.

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of October 9, the average price in Inner Mongolia was around 2,750 RMB/ ton; in Shaanxi, the average price was around 2,720 RMB/ ton; in Shanxi, the average price was around 2,770 RMB/ ton; in Xinjiang, the average price was around 3,120 RMB/ ton; in Ningxia, the average price was around 2,740 RMB/ ton; and the average price in Sichuan was 2,660 RMB/ ton, the price was temporarily stable; the LNG price in many places was gradually rising.

Market Forecast

SunSirs LNG analysts believe that: after the holiday, road transportation is restored to be unobstructed, and the downstream starts to actively replenish goods, and the terminal demand has increased. In addition, the weather turns cold, northern cities gradually enter the winter heating period, which supports the upward trend of LNG prices. It is expected that China domestic LNG prices will rise steadily.

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