According to the data of SunSirs, on September 18, the average price of domestic LNG was 2,373.33 RMB/ ton, up 0.14% from the beginning of the week, 1.39% lower than the beginning of the month, 3.26% month on month, and 18.16% lower than the same period last year.
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Last week, the price of China domestic LNG decreased first and then rose slightly. At the beginning of the week, the domestic LNG level was slightly higher, the LNG price was slightly lower, and the shipment was smooth in the middle and late weeks, and the price was steadily increased. At present, the domestic LNG market as a whole is still operating stably, with the rise and fall of individual regions showing mutual rise and fall. The quotation of LNG plants is adjusted in a narrow range according to their own shipment situation. Among them, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places have a strong atmosphere of adjustment, but the increase is not large. After the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the current inventory pressure is not big, the shipment situation is improved, the superimposed weather turns cool, the bad factors in the off-season demand gradually fade, the market transaction is stable, and the market is expected to continue to rise, but the market supply is abundant, or will inhibit the liquid price to have a large increase. In the short term, the domestic LNG market may continue to be stable and fluctuate slightly.
In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate was around 60% last week, and the operating rate in some areas was reduced. On September 18, Hubei Huanggang LNG plant resumed production and put into operation. Other LNG plants with large capacity also have plans to start operation in the near future, and the on-site supply has been steadily increased. In the near future, the arrival time is dense, the import gas is sufficient, and the price is relatively stable. The downstream vehicle demand is better, the industrial gas consumption is slightly improved, the overall market demand is better than before, but less than expected, and the support is limited.
Natural gas production slowed down in August, according to the National Bureau of statistics. The growth rate of natural gas import has changed from negative to positive. In August, 14.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points slower than that of the previous month; the average daily output was 460 million cubic meters, which was the same as last month. From January to August, 122.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas was produced, an increase of 8.8% year on year. In August, the import of natural gas was 9.36 million tons, up 12.3% year-on-year, and decreased by 6.4% last month. From January to August, the import of natural gas was 65.07 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%.
As of September 18, the average price of LNG in China was 2,373.33 RMB/ ton, 2,380 RMB/ ton in Inner Mongolia, 2,490 RMB/ ton in Shaanxi, 2,610 RMB/ ton in Shanxi, 2,410 RMB/ ton in Xinjiang, and 2,390 RMB/ ton in Ningxia as of September 18.
Market Forecast
As the weather is better, the natural gas delivery is more stable, and some analysts believe that the natural gas market will turn to be weak. However, near National holidays, in order to avoid poor transportation during the holidays, the factories usually promote before the festival, and the on-site supply is abundant. It is expected that China domestic LNG market will remain stable and have a downward trend in the short term.
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