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SunSirs: With the Combination of Bullish factors, China's Soybean Oil and Palm Oil still Remains High
September 11 2020 07:49:13SunSirs(Linda)

According to data monitoring by SunSirs, since August, soybean oil and palm oil have shown rising confidence. Although the gains have been ups and downs, by the end of August, the terminal stock market supported, soybean oil and palm oil continued to rise, and the process was still mixed. Oscillation is mainly up. As of September 10, the average market price of soybean oil was 6,936 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.1% from the price at the beginning of August and a 2.51% increase from the price at the beginning of September. The average market price of palm oil was RMB 6,296/ton, a 6.1% increase from the price in early August and a decrease of 0.13% from the price in early September.

Rigid demand supports soybean oil palm oil oscillating upward

Driven by news of soy oil purchasing and storage in the August market, the spot price of soy oil palm oil futures rose. By the end of the month, the stock market for mooncake manufacturers was mainly launched, and soy oil led the rise in palm oil prices. Beginning in September, primary and secondary schools began to start school. Terminal rigid demand increased, and the market was mainly bullish. Soybean oil palm oil futures prices rose sharply, but confidence at the bottom was insufficient. After the big rises, they fell sharply. the Lord. In terms of palm oil, there is mainly an increase cycle, and the price increase is not as obvious as that of soybean oil.

Bullish data dominates palm oil still expected to rise with soybean oil

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) 9 monthly supply and demand report shows that as of the end of August, Malaysian palm oil inventories only increased by 0.06% from the previous month to 1.7 million tons. Malaysia's palm oil exports in August decreased by 11.31% from July to 1.58 million tons. Malay palm oil inventory data is too large, and export data is negative. Indonesia revised palm oil export tariffs to benefit palm oil. Overall, palm oil is still dominated by bulls, and the market outlook is expected to continue to support soy oil prices.

Inventory pressure is still limited, soy oil upside is limited

This year, my country’s imports of soybeans have continued to increase. Since May, imports of soybeans have hit a record high for several consecutive months. In May, imports of soybeans reached 9.377 million tons. In June, imports of soybeans reached 11.16 million tons. In July, my country’s soybeans exceeded 10 million tons. 10.91 million tons, although the number of imported soybeans in August has declined, it is still as high as 9.6 million tons. From January to August 2020, China's soybean imports reached 64.739 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%.

While the supply of imported soybeans increased, domestic soybean oil stocks continued to remain high. From August to September, soybean oil stocks continued to be the line of 1.25 million tons, which to a certain extent dragged down the growth of soybean oil.

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that as the National Day is approaching, soybean oil plants will continue to shut down for maintenance, soy oil stocks will be destocked, and palm oil remains bullish. Coupled with the peak season for traditional oil and fat consumption, the outlook for soybean oil palm oil remains high.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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