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SunSirs: Cost Side Supported, China PP Rose in early July
July 15 2020 08:32:15SunSirs(Selena)

According to the data monitored by SunSirs, the trend of domestic PP market was strong in the first ten days of July, and all brands of materials generally rose. As of July 10, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8,066.67 RMB/ ton, which was 3.2% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Market Analysis

In terms of the upstream propylene of PP, according to the data of SunSirs, the recent price of propylene fluctuated periodically, with a relatively stable price range. At the end of June, the price has been at a high level, stable at the beginning of the month, and then decreased continuously. After going down 200-250 RMB/ ton, the price began to fall back on July 6, and has risen by about 250 RMB/ ton today. The market transaction is between 6,810 RMB/ ton and 7,100 RMB/ ton, and the mainstream price is about 6,850 RMB/ ton, reaching the high level in the range, and the stock pressure is not big. The crude oil price rose slightly on July 8, which had little impact on propylene. In the downstream of propylene, the overall profit situation of the factory is general, and the purchasing enthusiasm needs to be improved. At present, the increase of propylene has reached the high level in the previous period, and the upward pressure is under pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will start to stabilize in the near future.

The upstream propylene recovered after falling in the first ten days of July and is currently in the high range, which has cost support for PP. Recent PP (drawing) market performance is strong. According to the data monitored by SunSirs, the spot price of PP (wire drawing) ran smoothly at the beginning of July, and began to rise on July 6. The average price of each brand was about 250 RMB/ ton. At present, the average price of drawing material was 8,066.67 RMB/ ton. On the supply side, the current maintenance season, the recent wire drawing production rate fell again, powder operating rate was reported to have fallen. In terms of demand, although there is a short-term impact of imported materials to Hong Kong, the effect is not obvious and it is difficult to accumulate inventory. At present, the downstream stock mood is not high, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the actual trading atmosphere is relatively cold. Recent external PP and crude oil and other peripheral news are also negative, which is expected to cause resistance to PP (drawing) up.

According to the data monitored by SunSirs, as of July 10, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7,933.33 RMB/ ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, there was an increase of 1.06%. At present, the domestic price of PP (fiber) is slightly worse than that of PP (drawing). After the adjustment of the balance of months, the hidden inventory caused by overproduction has been digested, and PP (fiber) has completely ended the "debt repayment" market last month. Although the overall disk helped the macro demand, in recent days, the speed of de stocking slowed down, the pressure on the supply side increased, and there was profit yield in transaction. Downstream factories have a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere and insufficient follow-up of purchasing. In the first ten days of July, the PP (fiber) panel was slightly stuck in operation.

The market of PP melt blown materials continues to be weak. According to the price of SunSirs, the current domestic price of PP (melt blown) material continues to decline. As of July 10, the average quoted price of melt blown PP for melt index 1500 is about 18,166.67 RMB/ ton. Domestic public health events were generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials decreased rapidly. At present, the supply of epidemic prevention related products exceeds the demand, most of the prices have fallen, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials is scattered to a certain extent. It is expected that the melt blown materials will still be difficult to improve in the near future.

Market Forecast

SunSirs PP analysts believe, in early July, China domestic PP spot market was strong. Upstream propylene market down after warming, there was cost side support for PP. PP (drawing) price was stronger, PP (fiber) was stable with small rise. PP (melt blown) demands weakened, prices continued to callback. At present, the industry is still in the peak season of maintenance. At the beginning of this month, the reduction of petrochemical plants' inventory slowed down. Although there is a recovery of macro demand, the downstream factories are not active in stock preparation and the order follow-up is slow. Business mentality is loose, actual trading is weak. PP market is expected to be weak; it is suggested to pay attention to the further trend of supply and demand.

 

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