On July 5, the commodity price index BPI was 746 points, up 2 points compared with July 4, 26.79% lower than the cycle high of 1,019 (April 10, 2012), and 13.03% higher than the lowest point of 660 on February 3, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

On July 5, the lead commodity index was 90.19, flat with July 4, down 32.70% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 20.85% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The US dollar index fell 0.03% to 97.1846; offshore RMB fell 0.02% against the US dollar and USDCNH was at 7.0687; Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. GDP forecast to shrink by 4.6% in 2020, previously expected to shrink by 4.2%; the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 5.8% next year, and the unemployment rate is expected to reach 9% by the end of this year, which is lower than the previous 9.5% expectation. According to the data of Russian energy ministry, Russia's oil production in June was predicted 9.323 million barrels / day, down 16.5% year-on-year and 0.8% month on month; crude oil market: the spot Brent of crude oil (as of 3:00 a.m. on July 4, Beijing time) closed at $43.145/barrel, up $0.025 or 0.06% month on month compared with the previous trading day. Last Friday was a holiday in the United States and WTI oil prices were not available. Affected by this, LME market was up and down, with copper down 1.29%, aluminum down 0.74%, zinc down 0.42%, nickel up 0.43%, tin up 0.18%, and lead up 0.71%. In the Chinese futures market, Shanghai copper fell 0.59%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.43%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.18%, Shanghai lead fell 0.71%, Shanghai nickel rose 0.49%, Shanghai tin rose 0.43%, thread rose 0.44%, stainless steel fell 0.26%.

The trend of London lead: the opening price of London lead was 1,774.5 USD / T, the lowest was 1,763.5 USD / T, the highest was 1,788 USD / T, and the final price was 1,785 USD / T, with an increase of 0.71%.

The trend of Shanghai lead: the opening price was 14,705 yuan/ton, the lowest one was 13,565 and the closing price was 14,585, a decrease of 0.71%.

The social inventory of lead is on the high side in the near future, the demand for downstream consumption in the off-season is limited in the near future, the capacity of renewable lead is released, a large amount of imported lead flows in, and the inventory is high. It is expected that the spot lead market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.

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