According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal ushered in a turning point. On June 17, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 570 RMB/ ton, 2.75% higher than the average thermal coal price of 554.75 RMB/ ton on June 1, 3.54% higher than the average thermal coal price of 550.5 RMB/ ton on June 9, and the thermal coal price saw a slight increase.
On June 17, the thermal coal commodity index was 68.67, up 0.48 points from the previous day, down 33.34% from 103.01 (2011-11-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 53.62% from 44.70, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
In terms of origin, the supply is tight. After the completion of the "two sessions", the safety inspection was intensified, some coal mines in some areas were shut down and production was limited, the coal price in the production area increased significantly, and the overall production enthusiasm of coal mines was low. The overall domestic supply is affected. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on June 15, China's raw coal production in May was 318 million tons, down 0.1% year on year, and up 6% year on year in April.
In terms of downstream power plants, the demand is gradually picking up. At present, the daily consumption of six coastal power plants is still around 670,000 tons. As of June 12, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 15.4779 million tons, down 1.8 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available days are about 22 days. Daily consumption is expected to continue to rise as the peak season of electricity consumption gradually arrives. In terms of electricity, the demand growth in May was significant. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in May, the country's absolute generating capacity was 593.2 billion kWh, an increase of 4.3% year on year, 4% higher than that in April.
In terms of imports, quotas are tight. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in May 2020, China imported 22.057 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%; from January to May, China imported 148.711 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. At present, the state of import tightening is still maintained, and only a small number of bidding for power plants have been completed. In recent years, China has implemented the policy of control of imported coal, aiming to control the total amount of imported coal within 300 million tons. Now, the total amount of imported coal from January to May has reached 150 million tons, and the quota of imported coal in the second half of the year is relatively tight.
According to the analysts of SunSirs, firstly, the coal supply of the production area is tight in the near future; secondly, the demand of the downstream power plant is gradually warming up with the weather getting hotter and hotter, and the demand of the coal consumption industries such as cement and building materials will gradually pick up with the acceleration of the pace of the downstream enterprises' resumption of production and the acceleration of infrastructure construction projects; in addition, before the peak summer, the power plant still has the demand for replenishment of the warehouse; Once again, import quotas are still tight. Indonesia's coal price has fallen to near the low point since the outbreak, and the price of imported coal has continued to weaken. Some coal types in the port are in short supply, and traders are willing to hold up the price. In a comprehensive view, the thermal coal still has a small increase basis, specifically the downstream market demand.
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