In June, the decline of liquefied natural gas was suspended, ushering in a small rise. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of LNG on June 11 was 2,503.33 RMB/ ton, 1.35% higher than 2,470 RMB/ ton at the beginning of June, and 27.51% lower than the same period last year.
Since June, the decline of China domestic LNG has slowed down and rebounded slightly. As the benchmark price of raw gas has been lowered to 1.34 RMB/ m3, the flexibility of controllable price space of liquid plants has increased, and continuous price reduction has stimulated shipment. However, at present, it has fallen to the vicinity of the cost line, and some manufacturers have lost production. In addition, the price of imported LNG has been continuously reduced, seizing the domestic market. The domestic LNG trading and investment is common. The attitude of the industry is negative and the price is stable. It is reported that since June 15, the pipeline maintenance of the fifth processing plant of CNPC has been affected by the production of some liquid plants. In addition, it is in the off-season of consumption, so enterprises often choose this time to carry out routine maintenance. In the near future, the price competition with imported gas is fierce. Due to cost considerations, some enterprises enter the maintenance stage in advance. Supply reduction boosted the LNG market. In addition, through continuous price reduction and sales, the inventory pressure eased, and the shipment situation improved. The liquid plant tentatively pushed up by taking advantage of the situation. Among them, the increase in Xinjiang was obvious, mainly because of the high demand of gas stations in Xinjiang and the improvement of maintenance, and the price trend was strong. On the whole, the overhaul tide of the liquid plant has injected vitality into the sluggish domestic LNG market, and the LPG price has stopped falling and rebounded. However, restricted by the consumption season, the price is unlikely to have a significant upward space.
According to the data, in May 2020, China imported 7.841 million tons of natural gas, an increase of 116,000 tons, or 1.5% compared with April; and the import value reached $2.66 billion. China's import of natural gas has increased, but the range of fluctuation is not large, and the market supply is still sufficient. In the short term, centralized maintenance will be beneficial to the domestic LNG market, but the future market is still not optimistic.
Market Forecast
According to the LNG analyst of SunSirs, in the off-season market, the downstream demand support is limited. Some factories choose to shut down for maintenance at this time, and the supply reduction will boost the LNG market. At present, the LNG price is hovering at the bottom, and the manufacturers' psychology of supporting the market is rising. It is expected that the domestic LNG will rise slightly in the short term.
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