On May 21, the coke commodity index was 84.69, unchanged from the previous day, down 37.29% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 144.42% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Trend analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the price of domestic coke market was stable last week. As of last Friday, the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Shanghai are 1,780 RMB/ton and 1,840 RMB/ton respectively; in Xuzhou are 1,750 RMB/ ton and 1,810 RMB/ ton; in Weifang, Shandong are 1,740 RMB/ ton and 1,800 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province are 1,640 RMB/ ton and 1,690 RMB/ ton; the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province are 1,680 RMB/ ton and 1,740 RMB/ ton; in Shenyang, Liaoning Province are 1,710 RMB/ ton and 1,770 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province are 1,740 RMB/ ton and 1,840 RMB/ tonrespectively. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei Province are 1,730 RMB/ ton and 1,780 RMB/ ton; in Tianjin are 1,750 RMB/ ton and 1,850 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan Province, Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou province and Erdos coke market are 1,780 RMB/ ton, 1,920 RMB/ ton and 1,400 RMB/tonrespectively. The port trade (acceptance and closing price including tax) of primary metallurgical coke is about 2,000 RMB/ ton, of quasi-primary metallurgical coke is about 1,900 RMB/ ton, and of secondary metallurgical coke is about 1,800 RMB/ ton.

Product: Rizhao Iron and steel raised the purchase price by 50 RMB/ ton again on May 19, which opened the second round of price increase in this month. In addition to the reduction of coke enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi due to their own factors, the profits of coke enterprises in other regions were fair and the operating rate was positive. Affected by the pressure relief task, most coke enterprises in Shandong Province have limited production by about 30-50%, and the rest are planning to limit production, which has a certain impact on the later supply. In addition to Yuncheng and Xiaoyi areas in Shanxi Province, affected by production restriction and environmental protection, the supply decreased. The rest of the areas started work temporarily, with good sales and low inventory. As of Last Friday, the quasi first-class wet quenching coke in Shanxi Province reported about 1,600-1,700 RMB/ ton. In terms of demand, the start-up of downstream steel plants has increased slightly recently, and the demand for coke has increased slightly. In terms of port operation, the price is stable and the transaction is limited. The price of quasi first-class coke is mostly about 1,770-1,780 RMB/ ton, so traders are cautious.

Market Forecast

In the future, SunSirs believes that the current demand for coke market is acceptable, and the limited production of coke enterprises in some regions has a certain positive support for the market. The rigid demand of downstream steel plants is increased, and it is expected that the coke market will still operate stably, moderately and strongly in the short term.

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