Last week, Shandong's civil gas market fell mainly. On May 10, the average price of LPG (Shandong) market was 3,033.33 RMB/ ton, and on May 15, the average price was 2,900 RMB/ ton, with a weekly decline of 4.40%. The price was 33.33% lower than that of the same period last year.

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Price: last week, the civil market price of LPG was declined. As of May 15, the ex- factory price of Jilin Petrochemical LPG was 2,600 RMB/ ton, of Guangzhou Petrochemical LPG was 2,610 RMB/ ton, of Jingmen Petrochemical LPG was 2,750 RMB/ ton, of Shanghai Petrochemical LPG was 2,900 RMB/ ton, of Gaoqiao Petrochemical LPG was 2,900 RMB/ ton, of Qingdao Petrochemical LPG was 2,800 RMB/ ton, of Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical LPG was 2,900 RMB/ ton, of Shijiazhuang Petrochemical LPG was 2,700 RMB/ ton, and of Luoyang Petrochemical LPG was 2,750 RMB/ ton.

Market: after May Day holiday, CP soared, and crude oil rose, driving the LPG price up. But the market was too short, and then prices fell. At present, the benefits brought by crude oil to the market are limited. With the completion of downstream replenishment, the main consumption of inventory has been withdrawn from the market. The market transaction atmosphere has become weaker than that in the earlier stage, the manufacturer's shipment has been blocked, and the inventory has gradually increased. At present, the market supply is sufficient, but affected by seasonal factors, the weather is gradually warming, the terminal demand is reduced, and the LPG market is about to usher in the traditional demand off-season. The long replenishment cycle in the downstream leads to the imbalance of market supply and demand, and the civil market of LPG mainly declined.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 19th week of 2020 (5.11-5.15), there were 7 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were WTI crude oil (6.53%), petroleum coke (3.23%) and thermal coal (2.97%). There were 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were LNG (-3.96%), LPG (-3.33%) and coking coal (-3.24%). This week's average was -0.31%.

Market Forecast

At present, crude oil has limited advantages, the downstream mentality is cautious, the enthusiasm for entering the market is general, the manufacturer's shipment is blocked, and the inventory is increasing. In the later stage, affected by seasonal factors, with the gradual increase of weather and temperature, the terminal demand decreases, the downstream replenishment cycle lengthens, and LPG enters into the traditional off-season of sales, which is expected to be dominated by short-term or weak consolidation.

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