Price trend
Affected by the tight supply in some regions, the domestic ethyl alcohol market has risen again. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of May 14, the domestic ethyl alcohol market price was 5775 RMB/ton, the price increased by 9.74% from the same period of last month, and the price increased by 10.63% from the same period of last year.
Analysis review
Product: The domestic ethyl alcohol market in East China and Henan has seen a significant increase. The ethyl alcohol market in northern Jiangsu in eastern China is on the rise, the surrounding prices are rising, and the company's quotation is rising. The ethyl alcohol market in Henan is on the rise, the raw material prices are high, and companies are currently waiting for vehicles to increase; the price of ethyl alcohol in Shandong Province is adjusted, and the price of anhydrous ethyl alcohol returns to normal; the corn ethyl alcohol market in Jilin in the northeast is stable, orders from large factories are delivered, and inventory is low; The prices of raw materials in Heilongjiang are high. At present, enterprises are unable to deliver low-priced goods. Enterprise orders are shipped, and individual enterprise quotations are raised. The focus of negotiations in the Guangdong ethyl alcohol market in South China fell. In Guangdong, anhydrous ethyl alcohol is out of stock, and the price remains at a high level; in Dongguan, Guangdong, although there are other sources of goods coming to the port in the near future, but at present, the market traders have sufficient sources of goods in their hands, which is affected by the reduction of Guangdong; the market of molasses ethyl alcohol in Guangxi is waiting to be sorted out. At present, the orders of molasses ethyl alcohol enterprises are shipped, and the inventory of some enterprises is not high, and the price is high; Anhydrous ethyl alcohol enterprises have low inventory and firm price; the ethyl alcohol market in Anhui Province is up, and the price of enterprises is up due to the impact of price rising in East China.
Industrial chain: In terms of raw materials, corn: corn prices continue to fall. The temperature in most of the northeast region has rebounded, and the planting process has accelerated. Corn planting in many places is coming to an end. It is expected that the corn growing area in the production area will increase. At present, most of the domestic corn is controlled by the trade link, and the stock of surplus grain at the grassroots level has dropped significantly. We predict that the possibility that corn prices will generally remain stable and strong in the near future is still high. This judgment will not change for the time being. It is worth mentioning that more than half of the temporary storage of corn is in Heilongjiang, affected by the new crown epidemic situation in Heilongjiang, and the temporary storage auction may be expected to be postponed. The probability of starting food auction after mid-May is greater. The corn price is expected to show a new trend after the temporary reserve auction starts. This change is more likely to occur after late May.
Ethyl acetate: The domestic ethyl acetate market is light. Mainstream manufacturers are mainly selling at stable prices, but the downstream substantial demand is limited, and the digestion cycle is long, resulting in insufficient new orders in the market. However, the mainstream manufacturers have low inventory levels and no inventory pressure is temporarily seen. The spot supply in the South China market is sufficient, and the downstream demand continues to be weak, leading to partial competition from the supply side, and the market is passively weak. The short-term domestic market of ethyl acetate in East China and North China is on the sidelines, and the market in South China is gradually weak.
Market outlook
SunSirs analyst ethyl alcohol analysts expect that the short-term domestic ethyl alcohol market prices will remain stable. Large factories only deliver goods for orders, enterprises have few spot goods, the auction of raw corn is delayed, the price of corn continues to rise, ethyl alcohol production enterprises have high-pressure production, enterprises are reluctant to sell at low prices, and export orders continue, slightly slower than last month's performance. At present, the wait-and-see mood of middlemen is higher under the high price; In South China, the supply of goods from other places has not reached Guangdong port recently, so the owners have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the short-term market is expected to remain stable.
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