According to data monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of LNG on May 12 was 2,863.33 RMB/ ton, down 2.72% compared with last Tuesday (May 5), and 14.87% compared with the same period last year. On May 11, the LNG commodity index was 70.58, down 0.16 points from the previous day, down 66.22% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 2.51% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: as of May 12, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 2,800RMB/ ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2,820RMB/ ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Guanghui Naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 2,500 RMB/ ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao was 3,030 RMB/ ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan lvneng Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2,970 RMB/ ton, that of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. was 3,000 RMB/ ton, and that of Xinjiang Qinghua LNG was 3,500 RMB/ ton.
Market analysis: after the May Day holiday, the restrictions on the transportation of high-speed dangerous chemicals were lifted, and there was a short-term upsurge in the downstream. In addition, in the early stage, the continuous price reduction led to serious losses in the liquid plants. Considering the cost, the LNG price rose with the trend, and the average price on May 6 was about 2,990 RMB/ ton. At present, the LNG market is in the off-season, the downstream demand is weak, the highway starts to resume charging, the transportation cost rises, and some vehicles are out of service, resulting in the reduction of the demand for vehicles in the gas station, the high inventory of the liquid plants, and the continuous decline of the price. At present, the LNG price is hovering on the cost line; the profit of the liquid plants is seriously reduced. At the same time, the imported low-cost gas has seized the market, and the pressure of domestic LNG liquid plants to ship has increased. However, due to the production cost, the recent decline has been reduced, and the wait-and-see mentality has been growing. As a whole, the domestic LNG market is weak.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there were 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 11, 2020, among which there were 2 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were WTI crude oil (5.40%), Brent crude oil (5.13%) and MTBE (0.49%). There were four kinds of commodities that have declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were LNG (-1.26%), LPG (-1.10%) and diesel (-0.46%). The average price of this day is 0.55%.
Market Forecast
According to the LNG analyst of SunSirs, the downstream demand of the market is limited in the off-season, the good is hard to find, the market supply is abundant, coupled with the impact of imported low-cost gas, the inventory of liquid plants is on the high side, and the shipment is under pressure, so it is expected that LNG will still have a risk of falling in the short term.
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