According to the price monitoring of the SunSirs, the market price of asphalt in April showed an "L" trend, with the price of asphalt falling before and stabilizing after. At the end of the month, the price of asphalt was 2,207 RMB/ ton, 23.39% lower than that at the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: in April, the price of international crude oil market fell sharply, the cost of asphalt continued to drop, and the demand of asphalt market did not significantly increase, and the price of domestic asphalt market continued to decrease.
Industry chain: at the beginning of the month, the output reduction quota of OPEC+ meeting was lower than the market expectation, and the crude oil demand in April was expected to decline by more than 20 million barrels/ day, or even 30 million barrels/ day; the delivery oil price of WTI futures fell to a negative value in the last ten days, and the future market mentality was pessimistic. In April, the international crude oil market price fell all the way, and WTI crude oil price fell by 39.75%.
Asphalt Market: at the beginning of April, the international crude oil price kept falling, Sinopec and PetroChina main refineries suppressed the price of asphalt. In the northeast and northwest regions, the price of asphalt was reduced by 200-300 RMB/ ton, and the regional market price was still dominated by supply. In the case of slow demand recovery, the price of asphalt kept falling. As a result, the oil price fell to a low level in the middle of the year, and the domestic asphalt market price also fell to a low level. In addition, the current profit performance of the refinery is relatively high, and the asphalt price has a strong price action. The domestic asphalt market price performance in the middle and late ten days is relatively stable. As a whole, the domestic asphalt market price in April shows an "L" trend, falling before and stable after.
Markeet Forecast
The asphalt analyst at SunSirs believes that OPEC+ crude oil production is not favorable, crude oil inventory is soaring, and crude oil prices are expected to remain low. However, as the weather turns hot and domestic enterprises return to normal operation, the demand for asphalt will show an upward trend, and the domestic asphalt market price is expected to rise steadily in May.
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