According to SunSirs price monitoring, Chinese PTA spot market in April showed a trend of ‘N’. The average market price as of April 29 was 3,268 yuan / ton, up 2.54% from the beginning of the month and down 50.71% year-on-year. Affected by the news of crude oil production reduction at the beginning of the month, international oil prices rose sharply, PTA ushered in the bottoming out sentiment, the spot market turnover was massive, and the price rebounded significantly, rising by 8.33% in 10 days. With the pressure of crude oil storage capacity and its continued high construction, prices have fallen. On the 22nd, the average market price was 3,068 yuan / ton, the lowest level in the past decade. At the end of the month, due to the appropriate price replenishment at the downstream, the polyester production and sales picked up gradually, and the PTA price rose slightly.
Affected by the weakening domestic demand in March, PTA factories have high inventory pressure, and PTA production companies have overhauled and stopped production. The PTA operating rate fell to 69% in mid-to-late March. With the end of the overhaul period and the impact of weakening crude oil, the chemical products have fallen. Under the profit of naphtha and PX, the PTA processing fee once rose to 805 yuan / ton. Under such a high level of processing fee, he production enthusiasm of the PTA plant is very high, which has led to the recent PTA operation rate has been at a level of more than 90%, significantly higher than the previous year. At the same time, the demand side has not been significantly improved, so the entire April PTA is still clearly accumulating. As of April 26, the social stock of PTA in April was as high as 3.484 million tons. And it should be noted that with the new devices being put into production, the domestic PTA capacity has reached 52.255 million tons, and the PTA capacity in 2020 is significantly higher than the previous year's capacity base, so the overall market supply pressure is very large.
The price trend of the downstream polyester market is basically the same as that of PTA. At present, the mainstream factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas report polyester POY150D / 48F at 4,900-5,050 yuan / ton, polyester DTY150D / 48F at low elasticity 6,400-6,900 yuan / ton, and polyester FDY150D / 96F at 5,500-5,650 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, affected by the news of crude oil production reduction, the raw material market was strongly supported, speculative bottom-up replenishment market appeared, and the transaction volume of polyester products increased, and the price rebounded slightly. However, with the weakening of raw materials and weak demand, the market trading atmosphere has cooled down. As the holiday is approaching, the replenishment is appropriate according to the prices, and individual conventional fabrics such as terminal polyester taffeta and Chunya spinning are hot due to the protection demand, which has driven the demand for polyester to a certain extent, so the price has picked up slightly. The polyester staple fiber market set off a sharp rise in April, but the duration did not last long. With the significant cooling of non-woven products and the continued weakness of the traditional spinning industry, the market soon turned weak and fell.
From the perspective of terminal textiles, the overall industry is sluggish. At present, the trading volume of China Textile City is significantly lower than the level of the same period in recent years, and the market trading is light. Judging from the operation rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, as of April 28, the comprehensive start-up rate was 51%. In the face of the upcoming May Day holiday, the intention of May 1 work stoppage was gradually increased. At the same time, due to the impact of COVID-19, weaving foreign trade export orders were cancelled or delayed in large quantities. In the first quarter of 2020, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 45.26 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 17.7% over the same period of last year. Among them, textile exports 22.69 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%; clothing exports of 22.57 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%.
SunSirs analysts believe that there are not many PTA overhauls expected in May. The current PTA load remains high, the supply pressure is still there, and the downstream polyester load continues to increase. The pressure of PTA continues to accumulate. High inventory or become the normal state of PTA. It is expected that the PTA social inventory will remain at a high level in the later period, and the PTA social inventory will not reach a high value of 4 million tons from May to June. Downstream weaving companies' foreign trade orders are missing, domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, and nearing the May Day holiday, some weaving companies have plans to shut down for holidays in advance, with negative expectations and weak demand. The contradiction between supply and demand is still severe, and it is expected that the price of PTA will not change the weak position in May.
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