1． Price trend

In April, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. According to SunSirs' monitoring prices, the domestic butadiene market price on April 1 was 5127 yuan / ton, and the domestic butadiene market price on April 8 was 3867 yuan / Tons, a decrease of 24.57%, the price fell by 38.18% month-on-month and 51.11% year-on-year. At present, the market price of butadiene has reached a record low of nearly 10 years.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market fell sharply. Sinopec's supply price was lowered by 500 yuan / ton to 4,000 yuan / ton, and the northern Huajin auction base price was lowered to 3510 yuan / ton, but the transaction was still not smooth. Affected by the low-cost ocean-going cargo and the abundant domestic spot supply, the market continued to bearish expectations. It is expected that bearishness and supply-side price cuts will drag the market's center of gravity down. In Shandong, the bids were submitted to 3700-3800 yuan / ton in spite of offers. The low price in the East China market remained at 3600-3800 yuan / ton, and some offers were at 3800-4000 yuan / ton.

Enterprises: The 100,000-ton / year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Jiangsu Silbang was restarted on March 30. The unit is currently operating normally, and the quotation fell by 800 yuan / ton to 4,200 yuan / ton; the 70,000-ton / year unit in Inner Mongolia Jiutai restarted operation. The goods are normally sold, and the quotation is reduced by 500 yuan / ton to 3400 yuan / ton. Dalian Hengli's 140,000-ton / year plant is operating steadily, and the supply of goods is normally exported. The quotation fell by 300 yuan / ton to 3510 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: styrene-butadiene rubber: The domestic mainstream styrene-butadiene supply price is stable, and the market price has risen. The Shandong Qilu 1502 mainstream offer price is 7800-7900 yuan / ton; the oil rubber 1712 mainstream 7000 yuan / ton. Hujiao has risen, and the news has boosted the mindset of the industry; the supply price of raw material butadiene has fallen, and the theoretical profit of styrene-butadiene production enterprises has once again enlarged. Boosted by the rise of crude oil and Shanghai rubber, the upside and downside disappeared on the floor, and the industry generally added 100-300 yuan / ton offer to wait and see the trading market; the enquiry atmosphere was acceptable, mostly for middlemen to replenish the market, and the terminal remained on the sidelines, The principle of use and mining remains unchanged.

Cis-butadiene rubber: The factory price of cis-butane has not been adjusted, and the market offer range has been boosted. With the improvement of enquiries, industry offers have gradually increased their prices, and the price has decreased. Only a few private companies have shipped below the petrochemical factory price, and the overall offer atmosphere Better, middlemen are actively entering the market, and downstream factories just need to make up positions.

3. Market forecast                                     

The supply of ocean-going cargoes on the outer disk is abundant, and the domestic spot butadiene supply and demand continue to be weak. As Sinopec and other suppliers continue to lower prices, the overall market situation continues to decline. The short-term external news is difficult to be transmitted to the spot market of butadiene, and the market supply and demand are not supported by obvious benefits. SunSirs analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will continue to be weak.

Related listed companies: Qi Xiang Tengda (002408), Liaotong Chemical (000059), etc.

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