On April 7 domestic PVC (calcium carbide method SG5 ex-factory price) mainstream average price was 5500 yuan/ton, compared with the previous day up 2.54%, compared with the same period last year down 15.43%.
The PVC commodity index was 70.33 on April 7, up 1.75 points from yesterday, down 29.67% from the highest 100.00 point (2011-Septmber-05) in the cycle, and up 20.70% from the lowest 58.27 point on December 20, 2015 (Note: Period refers to 2011-Septmber-01 till now).
Product: Coming back from the Qingming holiday, the domestic PVC market is facing a wave of rising prices. Recently PVC futures significantly higher, driving the spot with the rise. The PVC market in the first quarter of this year is not good, the price continues to go down, and the profits of enterprises are sharply reduced. The mentality of the industry is not positive, and they wait and see.
Into April, PVC enterprises in succession into the spring maintenance state, the market output decreased, social inventory decline, and the supply side push PVC price up. On April 7, all over the PVC quotation have different degrees of increase, there are also some manufacturers do not report the closure. In the buy up while do not buy down the psychology, the downstream purchase enthusiasm has been improved, the overall market transaction atmosphere turned good, and sales pressure to get some relief. The production enterprise price psychology is obvious, and PVC market finally ushered in a long-overdue rise.
However, at present, the market is still slightly loose supply, domestic terminal demand has not been increased, foreign export orders decreased, and the future market PVC can continue to pull up should also see the recovery of the demand side. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of April 7, the domestic PVC mainstream quotation range was 5350-5750 RMB/ton.
At present Changzhou area PVC5 type calcium carbide mainstream was 5450-5550 RMB/ton, Hangzhou area PVC5 type calcium carbide range was 5430-5530 RMB/ton to pick up. Guangzhou area PVC general calcium carbide mainstream price was 5500-5530 RMB/ton nearby. A solid deal can be discussed.
Futures: PVC contract 2009 high open ending up with fluctuation, continuing to go up. The market opened at 5405 RMB/ton, with the highest at 5495 RMB/ton and the lowest at 5390 RMB/ton. The market closed at 5490 RMB/ton, up 185 RMB/ton or 3.49% from the previous session. The trading volume decreased to 185067 lots, and the holding volume increased by 6660 lots to 185225 lots.
Import and Export: According to the latest data released by the customs, from January to February in 2020, China will import 89,200 tons of PVC pure powder and export 61,700 tons. In terms of total volume, the import volume of 99,500 tons in January and February 2019 decreased by 10,300 tons, or 10.35% compared with that in January and February 2019. In the first two months of the year, the export volume of 93,800 tons decreased by 32,100 tons, or 34.22%.
Industry Chain: On April 2, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose sharply, with the main contract at $25.32/barrel, up $5.01. Brent crude rose sharply, with the main contract up $5.20 at $29.94 a barrel. WTI and brunt each recorded their biggest daily gains, both more than 25%. The business community sees global demand as the decisive factor in the price of oil. A public health pandemic, which could trigger a sharp contraction in economic activity, would not support ethylene prices, so business analysts expect them to remain in a narrow range for the rest of the year. Calcium carbide, the recent northwest area calcium carbide factory price or will be a small shock: manufacturers quote in 2600-2700 RMB/ton or so.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, on April 7, 2020, there were 7 kinds of rubber and plastic commodities rising in the list of rising and falling commodity prices. The top 3 commodities rising were PET (4.90%), PP (4.44%) and PVC (2.54%). There are two kinds of goods that decrease month-on-month, and the products before the decrease are PC (-3.19%) and PS(-0.44%). The daily rise and fall were 0.69%.
Market Forecast:
SunSirs analysts think that the current PVC futures rise, and the spot market with the plate rise, together with some enterprises into the spring inspection. The supply side is expected to be positive support, PVC trend is expected to be strong in the short term, and there is a further rise in expectations.
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