As of March 27, the average ex-factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 5,493.33 RMB/ ton, and the price was basically stable last week.
The naphtha commodity index on March 27 was 67.80, unchanged from the previous day, down 33.93% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 60.51% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: the price of refined naphtha was basically stable last week, the primary processing load of Shandong refined naphtha was increased, the supply of naphtha was increased, and some refineries produced mainly for their own use.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $22.63/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $22.60/ barrel at the end of the week, up or down by -0.13%; Brent crude oil was $29.00/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $28.65/ barrel at the end of the week, up or down by -1.21%. Since the collapse of OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia has constantly released the news that production has increased substantially. Russia has actively responded to the war to increase production, and the US shale oil industry has suffered heavy losses. At the same time, affected by the overseas epidemic of COVID-19, more and more countries have taken measures to restrict travel, forcing more refineries to gradually reduce production. Downstream: according to the data of SunSirs, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply last week, down 8.73%. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3,600 RMB/ ton. Last week, the domestic market price of isomerized xylene fell sharply, down 10.97%. Last week, the mainstream price in East China was around 3,800 RMB/ ton. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec's enterprises was about 5,000 RMB/ ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there were 5 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities were MTBE (8.96%), LPG (3.20%) and LNG (2.35%). There were 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were fuel oil (-7.81%), petroleum coke (-7.76%), methanol (-5.29%). This week's average was -0.5%.
Market Forecast
According to energy analysts of SunSirs, refined naphtha was basically stable last week. Affected by the overseas epidemic, the Asian naphtha market was operating at a low level. Recently, the supply of naphtha refining has increased, but the demand is limited. It is expected that the price of refined naphtha and hydrogenated naphtha will decline in the near future, with the average price range of 4,900-5,300 RMB/ ton.
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