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SunSirs: Caprolactam Fell Nearly 10% in Ten Days Due to Negative Stack (March 18-27)
March 30 2020 11:22:28SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to the data from SunSirs' block list, caprolactam has continued to decline in recent days. The average domestic ex-factory price of caprolactam liquid on March 18 was 10,266 RMB/ton, and the average domestic ex-factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 9,266 RMB/ton on March 27, and the price fell by 9.74% in ten days. The caprolactam commodity index on March 27 was 46.61, which was the same as arch 26 and hit a record low in the cycle, which was 53.39% lower than the peak of 100.00 on March 02, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2017-03-01 to now)

 

Analysis review   

Product: Crude oil plummeted, cost pressure was heavy, and caprolactam continued to fall. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9,000 RMB/ton, the cash leaves the factory, and the factory's production capacity is 300,000 tons. The actual transaction is negotiable. The price of Nanjing Dongfang Caprolactam liquid was 9,800 RMB/ton. The 400,000 tons / year unit was normally started, and the caprolactam unit was operating normally. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price is 9,200 RMB/ton, 450,000 tons / year device is normally driven, and accepted for delivery. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical is 9,200 RMB/ton, and the 300,000 tons / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Industrial chain: The center of gravity of the raw material pure benzene price has moved down again, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly. On the 18th and 19th, Sinopec substantially reduced the listing price of pure benzene, reducing the total price by 1,450 RMB/ton, a decrease of 28.63%. The average listing price of pure benzene at the beginning of the month was 5,380.2 RMB/ton, and the average listing price on the 20th was 3840 RMB/ton, a decrease of 28.63%. Imported pure benzene plummeted, and the profit in the market was heavier. Downstream products were dragged down by weak terminal demand, and inventory release was slow, which continued to negative the pure benzene market.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27),  there were 10 commodities in the chemical sector that rose in the commodity price list, including 2 kinds of commodities with a rise rate of more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector;. The top three commodities were formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%).There were a total of 40 kinds of goods that fell month-on-month, and 15 kinds of goods that fell by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of monitored products in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%). The average daily increase or decrease was -1.6%.

 

Market outlook

The analysis of the caprolactam of SunSirs believes that due to the decline in international oil prices, the pure benzene market has followed the decline, and the cost of caprolactam has dropped significantly. The market is mostly on the sidelines, and downstream demand is weakening. It is expected that the caprolactam market will run weakly in the short term..

 

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