The soybean oil commodity index on February 11 was 63.84, down 0.29 points from yesterday, 36.48% from the highest point of 100.51 (2011-Septmber-12), and 27.63% higher than the lowest point of 50.02 on December 18, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-September-01 to now)

On February 11, the palm oil commodity index was 77.25, down 1.34 points from yesterday, down 31.56% from the highest point 112.88 (2012-April-10) in the cycle, and up 49.88% from the lowest point 51.54 on December 16, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-March-01 to now).

Since February, the oil has rebounded after diving, and it has fallen again after rebounding, with twists and turns. As of February 11, the average price of soybean oil was 6526 RMB / ton, down 6% from the beginning of the month. The average price of palm oil market is 6104 RMB / ton, which is 5.8% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

Soybean Oil: After the Spring Festival, affected by the sharp decline in terminal demand, futures fell sharply, and the spot price of soybean oil fell nearly 8%. From February 5, the resumption of work was delayed. The logistics was limited. And the futures market rose. The spot price of soybean oil rebounded, with a daily increase of more than 2%. 

In the week of February 10, soybean oil enterprises started construction one after another. Terminal demand remained depressed. Futures went down again. Soybean oil spot price went down one after another, the price fell below 6600 RMB, a daily drop of 0.46%.

Palm Oil: After the festival, the demand for food and beverage was not good. Palm oil price of horse market fell. And palm oil futures fell sharply with the market. Spot price fell nearly 7%. From February 5, palm oil price of horse market rose. Palm oil futures rose sharply, and spot price rose by more than 2%. 

In the week of February 10, due to the sharp decrease of centralized consumption demand of terminal restaurant industry, soybean oil enterprises started to work one after another. The pressure of oil supply improved. The good news of the sharp decline of palm oil production in Malaysia came true. The price of palm oil fell again, and the price in some areas fell to 6000 RMB / ton, a daily drop of 1.71%.

Data: Palm oil production in Malaysia fell 12.6% to 1.17 million tons in January from last month, according to MPOB data. Exports fell 13.2% to 1.21 million tons in January.

Market Forecasting 

Li Bing, an agricultural products analyst at SunSirs, believes that in the short term, the demand of catering industry will not change the trend of downturn. And it is expected that the rising soybean oil and palm oil market will remain under pressure in the future.

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