According to monitoring data from SunSirs, since mid May, the demand for imported soybean feed has been poor, and the soybean meal market has continued to fluctuate and decline, with an overall decline of over 13%. In early June, the soybean meal market began to rebound and overall rebounded, rising by 2.76%.

Supply side: According to customs data, soybean imports in May reached 12.02 million tons, an increase of 65.4% month on month; From January to May 2023, soybean imports reached 42.306 million tons, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year. In April and May, the import quantity of raw soybeans increased significantly, the operating rate of Soybean oil plants increased, and the supply side was loose, leading to the continuous decline of soybean meal market for more than half a month in the middle of May.

Inventory: According to the soybean meal inventory chart from November 2022 to May 2023, it can be seen that after May Day, the soybean meal inventory has dropped to the first line of 200,000 tons, which is at a historical low. Starting from the middle of the month, soybean meal inventory has gradually rebounded, but it is still at a low level. At the end of the month, soybean meal inventory was around 260,000 tons, although it increased on a weekly basis, it is still at a lower level compared to the high point. The continuous low level of soybean meal inventory has to some extent limited the downward trend of soybean meal.

Futures: In mid May, the overall performance of soybean meal futures market was poor. In early June, the planting of American beans in the outer market was completed, and the weather was favorable. The market for American beans continued to rise. Driven by the market for American beans, the market for soybean meal began to gain momentum, and the spot market for soybean meal was supported, ushering in an upward trend. The mainstream quotation rose to 3,900 RMB/ton.

Demand side: After May Day, the demand in the terminal feed industry is still good, while the stock market for aquatic feed is average. Due to the lower price of soybean meal, the enthusiasm of feed factories for soybean meal procurement has decreased, and they purchase according to demand and use it as needed. The demand for terminal feed has been suppressed, and the overall decline in soybean meal market is mainly weak. At the beginning of June, the demand for soybean meal still did not improve.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that in early June, the soybean meal market was mainly driven by futures prices. From the supply and demand sides, bearish factors are still present. It is expected that after this round of market rebound, the soybean meal market will continue to be weak and decline, with future upward pressure.

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