According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of 92 # gasoline in China on June 5 was 8,526 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.43% compared to the price on June 1; The domestic price of 0 # diesel was 7,206.2 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.90% compared to the previous day. The cost of crude oil in June was positive, which has affected the trend of the domestic refined oil market.
Since June, the price of crude oil market has risen. By the end of the 2nd day, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States had reached 70.10 dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures had reached 74.28 dollars per barrel. On the one hand, it is because the issue of the US debt ceiling has been resolved, and the oil market has received some support. On the other hand, the statement released after the 35th Petroleum Ministerial Conference of OPEC+ shows that OPEC+ will continue the production reduction agreement reached in 2023 until the end of 2023; Saudi Arabia will reduce its output by an additional 1 million barrels in July, that is, from 9.978 million barrels/day in May to 8.978 million barrels/day, the largest decline in the past three years. Supported by this positive trend, the price of crude oil market has risen since June, and the linkage between product oil market and crude oil price is relatively strong. The price of gasoline and diesel oil has risen slightly due to cost support.
Recently, the operating rate of Shandong refineries has slightly decreased, with a slight decline in the supply side. The average operating load of the atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in Shandong's main refineries is around 63%, but the operating rate of the main refineries has slightly increased. The main refineries maintain high load operation and supply levels remain high. Therefore, there has been little change in the supply of refined oil resources, and the domestic production and supply of refined oil are relatively stable.
In terms of gasoline, with the appearance of hot weather, the use rate of air conditioners in private cars has increased. In addition, the Dragon Boat Festival in June has formed a certain support for gasoline consumption. The demand for gasoline has been guaranteed, and the price of gasoline market has risen. In terms of diesel, many parts of the country have experienced hot weather, and outdoor industrial and mining, infrastructure and other construction projects have been restricted. However, there is still support in the logistics industry and agricultural oil consumption recently. In addition, due to the favorable raw materials, the diesel market slightly increased in early June, but demand has weakened in the later stage, and the pressure for diesel to continue to rise is significant.
Future Forecast: SunSirs refined oil analyst believes that the news of production cuts will boost the crude oil market. In addition, with the positive support of the lifting of the US debt crisis, the short-term oil market will experience an upward trend. In the long run, there are different ideas between Russia and Russia regarding reducing production. In addition, the global economy still faces risks, interest rate hikes still exist, and the oil market still faces challenges. In terms of domestic supply, the overall operating rates of the main refineries and local refineries have not fluctuated much. In terms of demand, as the temperature rises, the use of oil for automotive air conditioners increases, and gasoline consumption is supported. In addition, supported by the favorable situation during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, it is expected that the gasoline market will mainly rise; In terms of diesel, due to the impact of high temperatures and rainy weather, outdoor construction has declined, and demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the diesel market will be mainly volatile.
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