Sunsirs: Soybean Meal Demand Was Depressed, the Market Remains Depressed

The soymeal commodity index stood at 86.73 on January 7, unchanged from the previous day, decrease 38.00% from its cycle highest 139.88 (2012-09-04) and up 18.74% from its lowest 73.04 on April 10, 2016. (note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 till now).

According to SunSirs monitoring, in January, soybean meal market did not usher in an improvement. Prices are still decrease. As of January 7, soybean meal prices averaged $416.11/ ton, down 0.23%.

Market analysis

Soybean meal: after the New Year's Day, approaching the Spring Festival, meat rigid demand increased, so pig prices are not stable. Market news chaos, some farmers focus on the pig selling, so feed demand is low. External futures market performance is not good; with the negative pressure, soybean meal market could not rise. Due to the low utilization rate of soybean meal in soybean oil plant, most soybean oil plants will start to stop for maintenance during the Spring Festival. At present, the stock is low and the price support mentality is heavy. The price of soybean meal has a small decline and a narrow range of oscillation, rising by $2.88-4.32/ ton, and then decreasing by $2.88-4.32/ ton.

Plant dynamics: planned shutdown of part of soybean oil plant in January, planned shutdown of Tianjin Dafus on 22nd; Tianjin Bunji is scheduled to shut down on 22nd; Planned shutdown of Beijing Huifu on 20th; Tianjin is scheduled to shut down on September 20; Tangshan grain storage 24 planned shutdown; Qinhuangdao Jinhai 20 planned shutdown; BSH planned to shut down on 20th; Jingliang is scheduled to shut down on the 23rd.

Data: the U.S. department of agriculture's (USDA) soybean meal export sales report showed that the U.S. net soybean meal export sales for the 2019-2020 year ended December 26 were 94,700 tons. The net export volume of soybean meal in 2020-2021 is 1500 tons. During the week, U.S. soybean meal export shipments for 2019-2020 were 201,100 tons.

After-market Forecast

SunSirs agricultural analyst Bing Li thinks: during the Spring Festival, the soybean oil plant has been shut down for maintenance, therefore before the festival, the price trends mainly going upward. It is expected that the fall of soybean meal’s price is limited. It will stabilize after fluctuation.

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