Price trend

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of March 24, the spot nickel quotation was 182,800 RMB/ton, down 1.11% from the beginning of the week and down 26.07% year-on-year.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, nickel prices have risen for 3 weeks and fallen for 8 weeks in the past 12 weeks. Recently, nickel prices have declined in a weak manner.

Analysis review

On the macro level, US Treasury Secretary Yellen changed his tone and said that "we are prepared to take action to protect deposits when necessary.". This aspect has boosted market confidence, with the three major US stock indexes showing a slight increase on the 23rd. Copper prices also showed a corresponding strengthening. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points and suggested that the increase was nearing its end, in line with market expectations.

Supply: According to the latest data from the International Nickel Research Organization, although global nickel production in January decreased compared to the total in December, it still increased significantly by 22% compared to the same period last year. At the current rate, the annual production of nickel will exceed 3.2 million tons. This increase is mainly due to the continuous growth of Indonesia's production, which has increased by more than 41% compared to the same period last year.

Demand: Due to the low nickel price, the production of electrodeposited nickel using nickel sulfate has suffered a loss, and the production schedule of new production capacity was delayed. The subsequent increment of electrodeposited nickel may slow down. The news of production cuts and shutdowns in stainless steel mills was frequent, and a large steel factory in North China had also released news of production cuts, leaving consumption light and unchanged.

Market outlook

In summary, the overall fundamentals of nickel are weak. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and attitude boots have fallen, the US index has fallen, and macro pressure has eased slightly. Although nickel prices have stopped falling, it has been unable to rebound. Nickel prices are expected to remain low and volatile in the short term.

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