Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the cement market in East China has been surging recently. The price at the beginning of the week was 394.00 RMB/ton, and the price at the end of the week was 417.00 RMB/ton, up 5.84%, up 10.03% month-on-month, and the current price fell 23.72% year on year.

Analysis review

Recently, the price of cement in some parts of East China rose. It can be seen from the data of SunSirs that the cement market had risen for a month in a row recently, and the recent price had continued to rise. The price of raw materials continued to rise, driving the clinker market up. Major projects in East China had entered the construction stage, and the demand for cement had rebounded, and the market was on the rise.

The market price of coke remained temporarily stable this week, but the market atmosphere had rebounded to some extent. With the rising price of coking coal, the profits of coke enterprises had been affected to some extent. In addition, the supply of raw materials was tight, and some production areas were expected to reduce production. The market expected that the supply of coke was tight, and the attitude of coke enterprises to increase prices was increasing. In terms of demand, as the steel price rose in late February, the profitability of steel mills improved and the purchase intention of coke rebounded. In general, coke enterprises had a strong mentality, and the market atmosphere was improving. It is expected that the coke price will be stable and stronger. The future market will focus on the price trend of coking coal, coke inventory and downstream steel sales.

Downstream: The investment in real estate development in 2022 was 13,289.5 billion RMB, down 10.0% from the previous year. Among them, residential investment was 10,064.6 billion RMB, down 9.5%; The investment in office buildings was 529.1 billion RMB, down 11.4%; The investment in commercial and business housing was 1,064.7 billion RMB, down 14.4%. At the end of the year, the area of commercial housing for sale was 563.66 million square meters, an increase of 53.43 million square meters over the end of the previous year, including 269.47 million square meters of commercial housing for sale, an increase of 41.86 million square meters. At the beginning of 2023, the infrastructure investment may continue to maintain a high growth rate of 10% - 15%, which will support the cement demand.

Market outlook

According to the prediction of SunSirs, the clinker inventory in East China had recently declined on a month-on-month basis, and the cement market demand was recovering rapidly. Therefore, the cement product analysts of SunSirs believe that the cement market will mainly rise in a short time.

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