Aluminum prices fell first and then rose in January

According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18,726.67 RMB/ton on January 31, 2023, up 0.16% from 18,696.67 RMB/ton on January 1. At the beginning of the month, aluminum ingots experienced four consecutive falls, and then went up all the way. After two consecutive falls at the end of the month, the price returned to near the beginning of the year.

In the long term, the average market price of aluminum ingots at the starting point of recent recovery (July 14, 2022) was 17,450 RMB/ton, and the current price was 7.32% higher than the recent recovery. The recent high price of aluminum appeared on December 5. The average market price of aluminum ingots was 19,536.67 RMB/ton, and the current high price fell by 4.15%.

Data of aluminum fundamentals in January:

As of January 30, LME's total aluminum inventory was 411,650 tons, down 38,650 tons from 450,300 tons on December 30;

On January 30, the social inventory of the mainstream spot market in China was 1.015 million tons, an increase of 515,000 tons compared with 490,000 tons of aluminum social inventory on December 29.

During the Spring Festival, the inventory exceeded expectations, and the aluminum price fell slightly

Recently, the high price of aluminum dropped, mainly because the accumulation of social inventory exceeded expectations and suppressed the price of aluminum. The demand of downstream terminals was delayed, and under the expectation of relatively stable supply, the social inventory data was up, the willingness of the holder to hold the price was down, and the willingness of the middleman to ship was stronger. It is expected that the aluminum price will be weaker in the future.

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