Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, aniline continued to decline in a wide range this month, and rebounded in a narrow range near the end of the month. The market price of aniline was 10,387 RMB/ton on January 1; The price was 10,000 RMB/ton on January 28. The average price of aniline this month fell 3.73% from the beginning of the month and 5.97% from the same period last year.

Analysis review

In terms of raw materials, this month's pure benzene market was hit by a variety of bad news, and the price fluctuated and fell. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly and cost was negative. 2、 The Asian-American arbitrage window was closed, and the price of pure benzene in China was high, so the import volume of pure benzene in January was high. And the overall supply of pure benzene was sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability was poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market had a common interest in the purchase of pure benzene, which was dragged down by the demand side. At the end of the month, the price was 7,050 RMB/ton, down 5.44% this month, up 1.64% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid rose this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2,450 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 2,516 RMB/ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 2.63% from the beginning of the month and decreased by 7.64% from the same period last year.

In December of last year, due to the centralized overhaul of aniline plants, the production capacity loss was obvious, the market supply was tight, and the price continued to rise. In January of this year, aniline reversed its trend and fell all the way. Since the beginning of the month, the early maintenance devices had returned, and the on-site spot supply had increased significantly; However, due to the increased resistance to high-priced aniline in the downstream, the operating rate decreased and the demand for aniline decreased. Under the background of increased supply and reduced demand, aniline factory inventory began to accumulate, and prices fell broadly under pressure. Near the end of the month, the price of aniline fell to a low level, which led to the improvement of purchasing sentiment in the downstream. In addition, the transportation of factories in the north was limited, and aniline rebounded slightly.

Market outlook

Raw material, pure benzene: the fundamentals are weak in the short term, and the East China Port is expected to continue to accumulate, with sufficient supply in the market, and the short-term trend of pure benzene continues to be weak, and wait and see whether the cost and demand sides can improve.

Pure benzene is still likely to weaken in the short term, and the cost support of aniline is insufficient. In February, the maintenance of aniline plant was less and the supply was sufficient. The demand for downstream MDI was temporarily stable, and the auxiliary industry entered the off-season, with poor demand performance. In general, the aniline market continued to be weak in February, with a weak rebound. In the later stage, continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand and changes in the operating rate of aniline units.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com