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SunSirs: The Market of Natural Rubber has been Up since January 2023, and the Spot Transactions are Sparse
January 28 2023 10:58:50SunSirs(Selena)

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic Baodao Biaoyi spot market of natural rubber in the East China market has fluctuated upward since January 2023. Among them, 12,250 RMB/ton was the lowest price in the period on the first day of the market, 12,690 RMB/ton was the lowest price in the period on the 18th day of the market, and then slightly revised back to 12,650 RMB/ton on January 19, with an overall increase of about 3.27% so far.

Industrial factors: in foreign production areas, Vietnam has started to reduce production in January, and will enter the large-scale cutting phase in February; Thailand will stop cutting and reduce production in March. According to the tradition, the global natural latex production will reach the annual low in March. Domestic production areas are currently in the period of cutting suspension. The traditional Spring Festival holiday mode has been opened one after another. Latex processing plants have been shut down, logistics have been shut down, and downstream product enterprises have been on holiday. The transaction has almost stopped. Although the futures market continues to trade, the transactions in the spot market are actually rare. The Chinese traditional Spring Festival is the most important festival for Chinese people. The workers go home for the New Year, the factory has a holiday, and the production is suspended. Some orders will be delayed until the start of the year; During the Spring Festival holiday, some manufacturers also worked overtime due to the impact of order delivery time.

Since January, the trend of crude oil market has been downward first, then upward, and then slightly downward. On the 1st, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 78.40 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 83.46 dollars/barrel; On January 18, the settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 79.48 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.70 dollars or 0.9%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 84.98 dollars/barrel, down 0.94 or 1.1%. At present, the hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve has raised concerns that it may not slow down the rate increase, and the expectation of economic recession has diluted the optimistic outlook of China's fuel demand.

After the end of stock preparation before the Spring Festival, the holiday mode has been started, and the current market spot glue quotation has basically stopped. With regard to the future market, it is expected that the market will be flat in the short term. After the year, with Vietnam and Thailand reducing production and cutting, the supply side will be at the lowest level of the year. After the downstream product factories start to work, the demand of the new year will gradually start. It is expected that the market will open the upward trend brought by the gradual increase of the demand of the factories in the spring under the premise of the lowest annual supply level.

 

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