Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price of raw silk rose sharply this week and the transaction was positive. As of January 13, the average market price was 436,700 RMB/ton, 1.85% higher than last week's price (428,775 RMB/ton), and 1.66% lower than the previous year; The dried cocoon market remained stable, with an average market price of 145,000 RMB/ton, up 0.69% year on year.

Analysis review

This week, on the spot market, after the continuous increase in the market price last week, the inquiry increased, and the number of downstream weaving enterprises that was on holiday continued to increase. Some factories were preparing to stock raw materials, and the number of inquiry enterprises increased significantly. The transaction was a little lively, but the spot quotation was chaotic. It is understood that most manufacturers offered higher prices for medium and low grade raw silk; the quotation of some medium-high grade raw silk had also been raised, and some manufacturers still maintained the original price.

Most of the downstream entered the Spring Festival mode, and the demand was light. The number of orders in hand of enterprises had decreased compared with previous years. In addition, the previous period was the peak of infection and the first year after the epidemic was released, so the factory holiday time this year was earlier than previous years. However, weaving and terminal enterprises were generally optimistic about the market consumption after the Spring Festival. According to a preliminary survey, 63% of enterprises believed that the order volume would increase after the Spring Festival.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that in the short term, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the spot market is still dominated by de-stocking and withdrawal of funds, and the light atmosphere before the festival is gradually intensified, and the price of raw silk is expected to be slightly consolidated. However, it is understood that some front-end production enterprises will face the shortage of dry cocoon raw materials after the festival and before the new cocoon goes on the market. In the future, the supply at the production end will be tight. Therefore, whether the upstream cost support is strengthened and whether the downstream market demand is released is the key point of the market trend after the festival. The shortage of raw materials will limit the possibility of raw silk prices falling in the first quarter.

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