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SunSirs: China Local Refining Naphtha Market Fluctuated and Fell in December 2022
January 04 2023 13:46:14SunSirs(Selena)

According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, as of December 31, the average ex factory price of domestic local hydrotreating naphtha mainstream was 6,841.50 RMB/ton, down 8.81% from 7,502.25 RMB/ton at the beginning of last month, and the local hydrotreating naphtha fell in shock.

According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, as of December 31, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 6,814.00 RMB/ton, down 5.22% from 7,189.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of last month, and the local straight run naphtha fell in shock.

On December 31, the naphtha commodity index was 84.44, unchanged from yesterday, 30.58% lower than the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and 99.91% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

Product: In December, the price of locally refined naphtha fluctuated downward. At present, the mainstream price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 6,800-7,100 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 6,700-7,000 RMB/ton. Affected by the bad situation of the gasoline and diesel market, the demand for terminal ethylene cracking is weak, the naphtha market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the purchase is mainly just needed. At present, the national logistics recovery is slow, and the refinery shipments are average. As of the week ended December 28, Singapore's fuel inventory fell 461,000 barrels to a two-week low of 20,942,000 barrels; Light distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.367 million barrels to a two-week low of 14.452 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventory increased by 529,000 barrels to a new four week high of 7.7 million barrels.

Upstream: In December, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over and was not close to the end of monetary tightening. The persistent economic heat in the first half of December triggered the market's concern about the Federal Reserve's transition from "dove" to "eagle", which may disappoint the Federal Reserve's previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the path of monetary tightening, which triggered a general decline in risky assets. In addition, the overall economy was weak. The severe epidemic in Asia continued to drag down demand expectations. The outlook for energy demand was still not optimistic. Economic weakness depressed oil prices, which fell sharply in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, in response to the Group of Seven's price ceiling on oil exports to Russia, Russia said it might cut oil production, tightening expectations to heat up the oil market. The news that the United States planned to store strategic oil reserves also brought good news to the oil market. In the second half of the month, international oil prices recovered their decline. On the whole, crude oil prices fell slightly.

Downstream: In December, the price of toluene fluctuated downward. On December 1, the price of toluene was 6,780 RMB/ton, and on December 31, the price was 5,920 RMB/ton, down 12.68% from the beginning of the month. In December, mixed xylene fluctuated downward. The price of mixed xylene was 7,310 RMB/ton on December 1 and 6,710 RMB/ton on December 31, down 8.21% from the beginning of the month. The price of paraxylene fell in December. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 7,450 RMB/ton, down 10.24% from the price of 8,300 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

According to the energy analysts of the business society, in December, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell, the cost support of naphtha was limited, the terminal ethylene and reforming were not significantly beneficial, and the procurement was mainly on demand. The national logistics recovery was slow, the refineries were active in shipping, and the merchants were in a strong wait-and-see mood and cautious in trading. After the New Year's Day, some downstream enterprises have been stocking up before the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the recent refining of naphtha will rise slightly in China.

 

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