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SunSirs: The Supply of Liquid Ammonia is Tightened due to too much Maintenance in the North, which Rebounds after Falling
December 30 2022 11:29:02()

This week (12.26-30), the domestic liquid ammonia market rebounded after falling. According to the monitoring of the business community, the liquid ammonia in Shandong Province rose 1.82% this week, the supply pressure eased significantly, and the supply and demand changed from loose to tight. The mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4400-4600 RMB/ton near the weekend.

On the supply side, the amount of ammonia released in the main production areas has declined this week, and the early decline in the northern region was relatively heavy. At present, the market has made up for the increase. Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan and other places all rose to varying degrees. The main reason is that some devices are shut down due to failure, and the supply is reduced.

On the demand side, due to the strong urea in the early stage, the trend of urea and liquid ammonia crossed. According to the monitoring, the price of liquid ammonia rose by 1.82% this week. The urea is mainly stable, and the liquid ammonia curve gradually approaches the urea curve. The main reason is that due to the recent pressure of epidemic situation in many places, the downstream stock preparation is delayed, and the urea manufacturers have high inventories and reduced prices for shipment. The market atmosphere is low.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the downstream is commendable, and the light storage is good. The compound fertilizer just needs support, and the price rises, especially the weekly increase of 3.39% for ammonium chloride and 0.42% for diammonium phosphate.

Future market forecast:

Analysts from the SunSirs believe that the supply is expected to increase next week. Mingshui Dahua and Anqing Petrochemical are expected to resume supply after the festival. In addition, many manufacturers will not stop during the festival, and the tight supply situation will be alleviated. On the demand side, the agricultural demand has little change, and the industrial side will be opened with the post holiday stock, so the procurement is guaranteed. On the whole, the supply and demand will tend to be basically balanced. It is expected that the price of liquid ammonia will stop rising in the near future and continue to adjust the range

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