According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the PC market in 2022 began to operate in a volatile way at 21650 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, and began to fall rapidly by the middle of the year. As of December 26, the PC price was 17400 RMB/ton, down 19.63% for the whole year, which showed a weak overall trend.
The PC market trend in 2022 is mainly divided into three stages:
The first stage: deadlocked operation stage. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of PC was 21,650 RMB/ton on January 1 and 21,833.33 RMB/ton as of May 23, with a range increase of 0.85% and the maximum amplitude of 8.15%. During the period, goods were prepared before the Spring Festival, and downstream enterprises returned to work slowly after the Spring Festival. At that time, the logistics was blocked due to the health event, and the demand release was lagging behind, but fortunately, the final cash delivery was OK just in need of support. On the whole, the market in the first quarter was relatively large, with an annual high of 23,333.33 RMB/ton on March 10. However, with the gradual weakening of upstream bisphenol A and terminal demand, and the 260,000 t/a unit of Nanhai Huasheng and the 100,000 t/a unit of Peace Coal Shenma put into production in March and April respectively, the PC market began to fluctuate and fall back, and the fundamentals of the whole stage appeared empty and empty, rising first and then falling, and the operation was generally deadlocked. However, the demand in the second quarter continued to be insufficient, laying a hidden danger for the rapid decline in the next stage.
The second stage: rapid decline stage. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the PC price fell rapidly from 21,833.33 RMB/ton on May 23 to 16,283.33 RMB/ton on July 19, with a range drop of 25.42%. At this stage, the international crude oil and chemical industry chain continued to be affected by the turmoil in Europe, and the upstream bisphenol A price fell deeply, dragging down the PC spot price. In addition, the load of downstream enterprises has been low for a long time, the market turnover has been bleak, the merchants have offered to give way to profits, and even some holders have dumped their goods for liquidation, resulting in a certain seasonal operational non inventory situation. In June and July, the PC market generally fell into a deep weakness of both cost and demand.
The third stage: bottoming and rebound. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of September 26, the price of PC materials had warmed back to a stage high of 19,133.33 RMB/ton, up 17.50% from 16,283.33 RMB/ton in mid July. At this stage, the supply of bisphenol A contracted in August, the price rose sharply, and the PC cost side support improved. Another important market fulcrum is the traditional peak demand season of "golden nine and silver ten". Seasonal digestion and stocking operations boosted the market from September to early October. However, with the end of the stock boom, the price increase gradually gave up. In addition, the demand peak season of this year was not as good as that of previous years, which failed to push up a price position to improve the PC market pattern. On December 26, the PC price was 17,400 RMB/ton, down 9.06% from 19,133.33 RMB/ton at the end of September. In addition, after the centralized maintenance of bisphenol A industry was completed, the price plunged again, dragging the rise of PC spot back.
Overall, the PC market trend in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:
1) The supply of enterprises to expand capacity is comprehensive and loose. 2) Downstream enterprises have insufficient support for the low demand end of the annual load. 3) Raw material bisphenol A fell and PC cost side support collapsed.
PC analysts of SunSirs believe that in 2022, PC production capacity will expand steadily, downstream enterprises' growth will lag behind, the mismatch between production and sales will gradually spread, and the pressure on the supply side will inevitably gradually rise. Upstream bisphenol A fluctuates violently and the market is negative. Affected by this, PC polymerization plants are cautious in preparing goods, and most of them take the initiative to reduce the load, resulting in the expansion of enterprise losses. On the macro level, the current global inflationary economic environment remains unchanged, the wide fluctuation of oil prices driven by European geopolitical conflicts, the rebound of domestic health events, and the devaluation of the RMB have all had negative effects on the PC market to varying degrees. To sum up, in 2022, the PC industry will have a lot of bad news, with conservative activities and general market momentum. It is expected that China PC market will continue to weaken due to insufficient demand.
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