According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fell again. From December 16 to 23 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2,655 RMB/ton to 2,566 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price dropped by 3.36%, 7.76% month on month, and 3.58% year on year. The main reason is supply and demand. In terms of supply, most production enterprises focus on de stocking, and traditional downstream enterprises also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

of the closing of December 23, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2,535 RMB/ton, the highest price was 2,544 RMB/ton, the lowest price was 2,475 RMB/ton, and the closing price was 2,459 RMB/ton, down 65, or 2.54%, from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,324,890 hands, the holding volume was 1,102,314 hands, and the daily increase was 155,121 hands.

On the cost side, with the relaxation of domestic epidemic prevention and control measures, the production, transportation and marketing activities of the coal market will be significantly reduced, and the supply will quickly rise to the previous high level. However, with the continuous promotion of the signing of the Long term Association for Coal in 2023, the demand for market coal of power plants will further weaken, and the profit space of the non electric industry will be squeezed, mainly focusing on the purchase of rigid demand. Superimposed by the policy, the short-term coal market will weaken steadily. The positive cost of methanol disappeared.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Chongqing Wanlilai plant will be stopped again after short opening, Hubei Qianjiang plant will be stopped temporarily, Henan heart to heart plant will be stopped, and the demand for dimethyl ether may decrease; Downstream acetic acid: YARACO plans to start up, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: It is expected that many units in Hebei, Shandong, Guangxi, Anhui, Henan and other places will reduce the load, and the demand for formaldehyde may decrease. Methanol demand surface is negative.

On the supply side, the 100,000 t/a units in Jiuding, Inner Mongolia, are shut down for maintenance, the 600,000 t/a units in Tongmei Guangfa and 400,000 t/a units in Sichuan Lutianhua are planned to be restored, and the 600,000 t/a units in Kunpeng, Ningxia are expected to produce products, and the supply is still abundant. Methanol supply was negative.

In terms of external market, as of December 22, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 364.00-365.00 dollars/ton. The US Gulf methanol market closed at 109.75-110.75 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/ton; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 318.00-319.00 euros/ton, down 0.5 euros/ton.

It is predicted that methanol cost will support or weaken, supply will be abundant and demand will decrease. SunSirs Methanol analysts predict that China domestic methanol market may suffer from shock.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.