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SunSirs: Maintaining the Accumulation Pattern Will Suppress the Upward Trend of PTA Price
December 22 2022 14:10:29SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market showed a slight rebound trend on December 7. As of December 20, the average price of the East China market was 5,444 RMB/ton, up 6.43%, and up 19.40% year on year.

Analysis review

PTA unit maintenance and load reduction increased. Ineos 1.1 million ton unit, Eason Dalian 2.25 million ton unit and Yangzi Petrochemical 650,000 ton unit were successively shut down for maintenance. Some units reduced their load to 50% to 90%. The overall operating rate remained around 66%, and the supply decreased in the short term.

In the international crude oil market, the leakage led to the closure of the Keystone pipeline system with a daily oil delivery volume of 600000 barrels at the border between the United States and Canada, which led to the recent rebound in oil prices. However, if it is restarted later, its supporting role will weaken. In addition, it is difficult to be optimistic about the supply and demand fundamentals in the future, and the risk on the demand side is approaching step by step. In the future, the oil market is still facing the pressure of fundamentals, and there is no lack of possibility for crude oil to continue bottoming out. As of December 19, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 75.38 US dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 79.80 US dollars/barrel.

From the downstream perspective, with the rising price of the raw material end looming, the terminal market exploded under a series of positive incentives, and weaving manufacturers had stepped out to purchase raw materials. The market had entered the periodic replenishment stage, and production and sales increased dramatically. The polyester market quotation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to rise, and the starting load rebounded to more than 50%. Some weaving enterprises postponed the original parking plan from mid December to the end of December or early January.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the PTA operating rate has remained low since December, but with the gradual introduction of new devices, the pressure on the supply side is still large. In addition, the downstream weaving market is about to enter a holiday state, and reducing the operating rate is bound to hit the raw material procurement. With the supply increase and the terminal entering the seasonal slack season, it is expected that the PTA accumulation pattern will maintain, which will still suppress the upward trend of PTA prices.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com

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