Price trend

According to the nickel price monitoring of SunSirs, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of December 16, spot nickel quoted 223,033.33 RMB/ton, down 0.62% from the beginning of the week and up 53.32% year on year.

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of SunSirs, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose for 6 weeks, fell for 5 weeks, and remained unchanged for 1 week. Recently, the nickel price fell slightly after strengthening.

Analysis review

Macro: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50bp as scheduled, and the benchmark interest rate rose to 4.25-4.5%. The official speech was slightly hawkish. In addition, the US retail sales in November and China's total retail sales of consumer goods both fell more than expected, with poor data.

On the supply side: Nova Nickel Mine in Western Australia recently announced that it would suspend nickel production for about four weeks, and nickel soared last week due to accidental events; The main mining areas in the Philippines entered the rainy season, and the shipment volume was small, the export of nickel ore was already at a low level.

In terms of demand: As the end of the year is approaching, some stainless steel prices have risen due to the positive impact of the downstream stainless steel enterprises' stock preparation before the festival and the stimulus of favorable macro policies. However, the nickel price at the raw material end fell slightly this week, and the stainless steel price subsequently fell back. It is expected that the stainless steel will mainly operate to be weaker in shock in the short term.

Market outlook

To sum up, the overall nickel price was weak and shocked by macro sentiment. The hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve aroused new concerns about economic growth. Concerns about economic recession increased and investors took profits. Inflation concerns put significant pressure on the commodity market. Oil prices fell back, and weak demand again highlighted. Nickel price is expected to fluctuate to weaken slightly.

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