According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market was in shock. From December 5 to 12 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market rose from 2,670 RMB/ton to 2,690 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price rose 0.75%, fell 3.15% month on month and rose 5.91% year on year. The main reason is supply and demand. In terms of supply, most production enterprises focus on de stocking, and traditional downstream enterprises also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

As of the closing of December 12, methanol in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2301 opened at 2,489 RMB/ton, the highest price was 2,540 RMB/ton, the lowest price was 2,477 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,527 RMB/ton, up 34, or 1.36%, from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,307,300, the position was 725618, and the daily increase was -169,252.

In terms of cost, the price of raw coal has risen slightly, and the price of natural gas has stabilized. With the arrival of the "cold wave", the demand side of steam coal is expected to be released, and the actual supply of goods in northern ports is relatively scarce. Ensuring stable supply in winter is the focus of the market. In the short term, the price of steam coal may fluctuate slightly. The cost of methanol is favorable.

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: Jiangsu Sopu resumed production, but Celanese planned to overhaul for one week on December 11, and the demand for acetic acid may be limited; MTBE demand may change little. There is no significant change in methanol demand.

Supply side: Inner Mongolia Jiutai (Tuoxian County), Shanxi Yaxin, Anhui Linhuan, Jiangsu Sopu, Jiuyuan Chemical and a set of equipment maintenance in Chongqing; The production of three units in Ningxia Heling, Jiangsu Sopu, Sinopec SVW, Chongqing Cabelle, Shanxi Lubao and Shandong was reduced; Shandong Rongxin, Jiangsu Suopu, Shanxi Tianze and a set of devices in Shandong are under early maintenance or production reduction. The total amount of physical examination and repair is greater than the recovery amount, the capacity utilization rate decreases, and the methanol supply side has a good profit.

In terms of external market, as of December 9, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 362.0-363.0 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 86.75-87.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 301.50-302.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The price of the external market rose, and the deposit interest was good.

It is predicted that the cost side of methanol will be supported, but the supply side will not decrease and the demand side will not change much. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by weak trend in China.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.